· Analysis updated 01:37 UTC
Dulwich Hamlet vs East Grinstead Town Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.28 expected goals for Dulwich Hamlet and 1.30 for East Grinstead Town, a combined total of 3.58. That distribution gives Dulwich Hamlet the largest share of the 1X2 market at 60%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 69% for over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 60% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Dulwich Hamlet win
59.5% probability
Expected goals
2.28 – 1.30
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Dulwich Hamlet home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
East Grinstead Town away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Dulwich Hamlet to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 60%, against 60% / 20% / 21% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.28 goals for Dulwich Hamlet and 1.30 for East Grinstead Town, a combined 3.58 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
79%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
41%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.4%
- 1–18.3%
- 2–07.3%
- 3–17.2%
- 1–06.4%
Recent form
Dulwich Hamlet
- 2026-10-24T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Maldon & Tiptree · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-20T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Chatham Town · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Carshalton Athletic · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-13T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Burgess Hill Town · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Enfield Town · 0-3 (L)
East Grinstead Town
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Dulwich Hamlet · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-04-25T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Margate · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-04-18T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Merstham · 2-7 (L)
- 2026-04-11T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Faversham Town · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-04-06T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Jersey Bulls · 0-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Dulwich Hamlet win, at 59.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 65% and over 2.5 goals at 69%.
A 60% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.