Dulwich Hamlet vs Lewes Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.30 expected goals for Dulwich Hamlet and 1.68 for Lewes, a combined total of 2.97. That distribution gives Lewes the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 57% for over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Lewes win

46.3% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.30 – 1.68

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Dulwich Hamlet home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Lewes away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Lewes to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 46%, against 30% / 24% / 46% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.30 goals for Dulwich Hamlet and 1.68 for Lewes, a combined 2.97 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Dulwich Hamlet win30%

Draw24%

Lewes win46%

Double chance 1X

54%

Double chance 12

76%

Double chance X2

70%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals80%

Over 2.5 goals57%

Over 3.5 goals35%

Both teams to score59%

Correct score

1–111.1%
1–29.3%
0–18.6%
2–17.2%
0–27.2%

Recent form

Dulwich Hamlet

2026-10-24T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Maldon & Tiptree · 1-1 (D)
2026-10-20T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Chatham Town · 0-4 (L)
2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Carshalton Athletic · 2-2 (D)
2026-10-13T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Burgess Hill Town · 0-2 (L)
2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Enfield Town · 0-3 (L)

Lewes

2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Whitehawk · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Uxbridge · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Cheshunt · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-15T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Carshalton Athletic · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Chatham Town · 2-3 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Non League Premier - Isthmian table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Enfield Town	12	9	1	2	17	28
2	Welling United	13	9	0	4	11	27
3	Lewes	13	8	2	3	6	26
4	Chatham Town	13	8	0	5	13	24
5	Dartford	13	8	0	5	2	24
6	Ramsgate	13	7	1	5	12	22
7	Eastbourne Borough	11	7	1	3	10	22
8	Carshalton Athletic	15	7	1	7	-5	22
9	Burgess Hill Town	12	5	5	2	6	20
10	Wingate & Finchley	12	6	2	4	1	20
11	Dulwich Hamlet	13	5	3	5	0	18
12	St Albans City	9	5	2	2	5	17
13	Leatherhead	11	4	3	4	-2	15
14	Whyteleafe	14	4	3	7	-3	15
15	Cheshunt	13	3	6	4	-6	15
16	Aveley	13	4	2	7	-1	14
17	Maldon & Tiptree	15	4	2	9	-17	14
18	Cray Wanderers	9	3	3	3	5	12
19	Brentwood Town	11	4	0	7	-1	12
20	Three Bridges	13	2	3	8	-13	9
21	Stanway Rovers	13	2	1	10	-20	7
22	Whitehawk	13	1	3	9	-20	6

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Lewes win, at 46.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 59% and over 2.5 goals at 57%.

A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.