Dumbarton Football Stadium · Analysis updated 16:48 UTC
Dumbarton vs Elgin City Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.92 expected goals for Dumbarton and 1.43 for Elgin City, a combined total of 2.35. That distribution gives Elgin City the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 42% for over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Elgin City win
48.9% probability
Expected goals
0.92 – 1.43
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Dumbarton home form
15 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Elgin City away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
51%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
76%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–113.6%
- 1–112.5%
- 0–29.8%
- 0–09.5%
- 1–29.0%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 9.8%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.20 (model 54.2% vs market 42.4%, edge +11.8 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.20 | 42.4% | 54.2% | 1.85 | +11.8 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.91 | 49.4% | 51.1% | 1.96 | +1.7 |
| Match result | Home | 3.80 | 24.0% | 24.2% | 4.13 | +0.2 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.40 | 26.8% | 26.9% | 3.72 | +0.1 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.29 | 73.2% | 73.1% | 1.37 | -0.1 |
| Match result | Away | 1.85 | 49.2% | 48.9% | 2.04 | -0.3 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.22 | 77.4% | 75.8% | 1.32 | -1.6 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.62 | 57.6% | 45.8% | 2.18 | -11.8 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Dumbarton
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Forfar Athletic · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Banks O' Dee · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-22T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Kilmarnock II · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Spartans · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Stranraer · 1-3 (L)
Elgin City
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Clyde · 6-2 (W)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Peterhead · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-22T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Dundee II · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Stranraer · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Annan Athletic · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-03-14T15:00:00.000Z · Dumbarton 1-1 Elgin City (League Two)
- 2026-01-24T15:00:00.000Z · Dumbarton 2-2 Elgin City (League Two)
- 2025-11-15T15:00:00.000Z · Dumbarton 0-2 Elgin City (League Two)
- 2025-08-16T14:00:00.000Z · Dumbarton 1-1 Elgin City (League Two)
- 2024-04-27T14:00:00.000Z · Dumbarton 2-2 Elgin City (League Two)
- 2024-01-27T14:00:00.000Z · Dumbarton 1-0 Elgin City (League Two)
- 2023-11-18T15:00:00.000Z · Dumbarton 1-0 Elgin City (League Two)
- 2023-09-16T14:00:00.000Z · Dumbarton 0-2 Elgin City (League Two)
- 2023-04-29T14:00:00.000Z · Dumbarton 0-1 Elgin City (League Two)
- 2023-02-25T15:00:00.000Z · Dumbarton 1-2 Elgin City (League Two)
League Two table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Stranraer | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 17 |
| 2 | Clyde | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 17 |
| 3 | Elgin City | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 14 |
| 4 | Spartans | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 12 |
| 5 | Kelty Hearts | 9 | 4 | 0 | 5 | -5 | 12 |
| 6 | Dumbarton | 9 | 4 | 0 | 5 | -5 | 12 |
| 7 | Forfar Athletic | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -6 | 11 |
| 8 | Edinburgh City | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 10 |
| 9 | Annan Athletic | 9 | 3 | 0 | 6 | -2 | 9 |
| 10 | Stirling Albion | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -11 | 8 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Elgin City win, at 48.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 46% and over 2.5 goals at 42%.
A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.