Dumbarton Football Stadium · Analysis updated 15:56 UTC
Dumbarton vs Forfar Athletic Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.46 expected goals for Dumbarton and 1.29 for Forfar Athletic, a combined total of 2.75. That distribution gives Dumbarton the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 52% for over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
66.6% probability
Expected goals
1.46 – 1.29
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Dumbarton home form
15 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Forfar Athletic away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 7 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
67%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
59%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.0%
- 1–09.3%
- 2–18.8%
- 0–18.2%
- 1–27.8%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 11.2%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Goals — Under 3.5 at 1.40 (model 70.3% vs market 66.3%, edge +4.0 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | Under 3.5Value | 1.40 | 66.3% | 70.3% | 1.42 | +4.0 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.25 | 73.4% | 74.6% | 1.34 | +1.2 |
| Match result | Away | 2.75 | 32.7% | 33.4% | 2.99 | +0.7 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | 2.00 | 47.4% | 48.1% | 2.08 | +0.7 |
| Match result | Home | 2.20 | 40.9% | 41.2% | 2.43 | +0.3 |
| Both teams to score | No | 2.10 | 44.3% | 44.4% | 2.25 | +0.1 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.67 | 55.7% | 55.6% | 1.80 | -0.1 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.55 | 59.2% | 58.8% | 1.70 | -0.4 |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 1.80 | 52.6% | 51.9% | 1.93 | -0.7 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.36 | 67.4% | 66.6% | 1.50 | -0.8 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.40 | 26.4% | 25.4% | 3.94 | -1.0 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | 2.75 | 33.7% | 29.7% | 3.37 | -4.0 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Dumbarton
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Forfar Athletic · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Banks O' Dee · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-22T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Kilmarnock II · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Spartans · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Stranraer · 1-3 (L)
Forfar Athletic
- 2026-09-29T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Formartine United · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Dundee United II · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-22T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Peterhead · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Annan Athletic · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Spartans · 1-5 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-03-28T14:00:00.000Z · Dumbarton 2-2 Forfar Athletic (League Two)
- 2026-02-07T15:00:00.000Z · Dumbarton 0-2 Forfar Athletic (League Two)
- 2025-11-22T15:00:00.000Z · Dumbarton 1-4 Forfar Athletic (League Two)
- 2025-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · Dumbarton 3-2 Forfar Athletic (League Two)
- 2024-04-06T14:00:00.000Z · Dumbarton 2-0 Forfar Athletic (League Two)
- 2024-02-10T15:00:00.000Z · Dumbarton 2-2 Forfar Athletic (League Two)
- 2023-12-16T15:00:00.000Z · Dumbarton 4-2 Forfar Athletic (League Two)
- 2023-08-19T14:00:00.000Z · Dumbarton 3-1 Forfar Athletic (League Two)
- 2023-03-29T18:45:00.000Z · Dumbarton 0-1 Forfar Athletic (League Two)
- 2023-01-14T15:00:00.000Z · Dumbarton 1-2 Forfar Athletic (League Two)
League Two table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Stranraer | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 17 |
| 2 | Clyde | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 17 |
| 3 | Elgin City | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 14 |
| 4 | Spartans | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 12 |
| 5 | Kelty Hearts | 9 | 4 | 0 | 5 | -5 | 12 |
| 6 | Dumbarton | 9 | 4 | 0 | 5 | -5 | 12 |
| 7 | Forfar Athletic | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -6 | 11 |
| 8 | Edinburgh City | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 10 |
| 9 | Annan Athletic | 9 | 3 | 0 | 6 | -2 | 9 |
| 10 | Stirling Albion | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -11 | 8 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 66.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 56% and over 2.5 goals at 52%.
A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.