Dumbarton Football Stadium · Analysis updated 13:15 UTC
Dumbarton vs Spartans Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.10 expected goals for Dumbarton and 2.08 for Spartans, a combined total of 3.18. That distribution gives Spartans the largest share of the 1X2 market at 60%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 62% for over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 60% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Spartans win
59.8% probability
Expected goals
1.10 – 2.08
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Dumbarton home form
15 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Spartans to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 60%, against 20% / 21% / 60% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.10 goals for Dumbarton and 2.08 for Spartans, a combined 3.18 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 62% and both teams to score at 58%, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 10%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
40%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
81%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–29.9%
- 1–19.5%
- 0–29.0%
- 0–18.7%
- 1–36.8%
Recent form
Dumbarton
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Forfar Athletic · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Banks O' Dee · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-22T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Kilmarnock II · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Spartans · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Stranraer · 1-3 (L)
Spartans
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Kelty Hearts · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-25T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Dundee II · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-22T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Gala Fairydean Rovers · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Dumbarton · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Forfar Athletic · 5-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
League Two table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Stranraer | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 16 | 23 |
| 2 | Clyde | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 23 |
| 3 | Elgin City | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 18 |
| 4 | Spartans | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 15 |
| 5 | Kelty Hearts | 11 | 5 | 0 | 6 | -5 | 15 |
| 6 | Dumbarton | 11 | 4 | 1 | 6 | -6 | 13 |
| 7 | Stirling Albion | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -10 | 12 |
| 8 | Edinburgh City | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 11 |
| 9 | Forfar Athletic | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | -8 | 11 |
| 10 | Annan Athletic | 11 | 3 | 0 | 8 | -10 | 9 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Spartans win, at 59.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 58% and over 2.5 goals at 62%.
A 60% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.