Dumbrăviţa vs Metalul Buzău Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 0.61 expected goals for Dumbrăviţa and 1.52 for Metalul Buzău, a combined total of 2.13. That distribution gives Metalul Buzău the largest share of the 1X2 market at 59%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 36% for over 2.5 goals and 36% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 18%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 59% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Metalul Buzău win

59.3% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

0.61 – 1.52

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Dumbrăviţa home form
2 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Metalul Buzău away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Metalul Buzău to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 59%, against 15% / 26% / 59% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.61 goals for Dumbrăviţa and 1.52 for Metalul Buzău, a combined 2.13 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

Dumbrăviţa win15%

Draw26%

Metalul Buzău win59%

Double chance 1X

41%

Double chance 12

74%

Double chance X2

85%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals63%

Over 2.5 goals36%

Over 3.5 goals17%

Both teams to score36%

Correct score

0–118.0%
0–213.7%
0–011.9%
1–111.1%
1–28.4%

Recent form

Dumbrăviţa

2026-10-10T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Cetatea Suceava · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-22T14:30:00.000Z · H vs CSM Reşiţa · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-12T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Slatina · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-06T08:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Bacau · 1-6 (L)
2026-08-29T08:00:00.000Z · H vs CSM Ramnicu Valcea · 0-1 (L)

Metalul Buzău

2026-10-10T08:00:00.000Z · H vs ASA Targu Mures · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-19T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Concordia · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-13T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Unirea Slobozia · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-05T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Viitorul Şelimbăr · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-29T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Chindia Targoviste · 1-3 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Liga II table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	FC Politehnica Timisoara	11	8	3	0	13	27
2	Slatina	11	8	1	2	9	25
3	Chindia Targoviste	11	8	0	3	13	24
4	Popești-Leordeni	11	7	3	1	11	24
5	Cetatea Suceava	11	6	3	2	10	21
6	Metalul Buzău	11	6	3	2	6	21
7	CSM Reşiţa	11	7	0	4	3	21
8	Concordia	11	6	1	4	8	19
9	FC Bacau	11	5	3	3	12	18
10	Bihor Oradea	11	5	3	3	8	18
11	Gloria Bistriţa	11	6	0	5	1	18
12	CS Afumati	11	5	2	4	0	17
13	Metaloglobus	10	3	3	4	-4	12
14	CSM Ramnicu Valcea	10	3	2	5	-5	11
15	ASA Targu Mures	11	3	2	6	-7	11
16	CSA Steaua Bucureşti	11	2	4	5	-6	10
17	Viitorul Şelimbăr	11	2	3	6	-12	9
18	Unirea Slobozia	11	2	2	7	-1	8
19	CS Dinamo București	11	2	1	8	-16	7
20	CSM Satu Mare	11	0	6	5	-8	6
21	Ştefăneşti	11	2	0	9	-19	6
22	Dumbrăviţa	11	0	3	8	-16	3

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Metalul Buzău win, at 59.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 36% and over 2.5 goals at 36%.

A 59% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.