· Analysis updated 05:03 UTC
Dunaharaszti MTK vs Érdi VSE Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.45 expected goals for Dunaharaszti MTK and 1.77 for Érdi VSE, a combined total of 4.22. That distribution gives Dunaharaszti MTK the largest share of the 1X2 market at 53%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 79% for over 2.5 goals and 76% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 53% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Dunaharaszti MTK win
52.9% probability
Expected goals
2.45 – 1.77
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Dunaharaszti MTK home form
5 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Érdi VSE away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Dunaharaszti MTK to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 53%, against 53% / 19% / 28% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.45 goals for Dunaharaszti MTK and 1.77 for Érdi VSE, a combined 4.22 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
72%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
47%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–17.8%
- 2–26.9%
- 3–16.4%
- 1–16.4%
- 3–25.6%
Recent form
Dunaharaszti MTK
- 2026-08-29T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Kaposvar · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-08-26T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Iváncsa · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-08-21T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Ikarus BSE · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-08-15T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Érdi VSE · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-12T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Majosi · 2-1 (W)
Érdi VSE
- 2026-10-24T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Budafoki LC · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-17T11:00:00.000Z · H vs PTE-PEAC · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-11T09:00:00.000Z · A vs MTK Budapest II · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-03T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Kaposvar · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Iváncsa · 1-4 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
NB III - Southwest table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pécsi MFC | 13 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 36 | 37 |
| 2 | Kaposvar | 12 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 18 | 25 |
| 3 | Ferencváros II | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 21 |
| 4 | Iváncsa | 12 | 7 | 0 | 5 | 6 | 21 |
| 5 | Majosi | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 21 |
| 6 | Dunaharaszti MTK | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 20 |
| 7 | Budafoki LC | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 18 |
| 8 | Siofok | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 17 |
| 9 | Érdi VSE | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 16 |
| 10 | PTE-PEAC | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | -2 | 16 |
| 11 | MTK Budapest II | 11 | 5 | 0 | 6 | 5 | 15 |
| 12 | Budaörs | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | -19 | 12 |
| 13 | Paksi SE II | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 10 |
| 14 | Sárbogárd | 12 | 1 | 2 | 9 | -28 | 5 |
| 15 | Szekszárd | 12 | 0 | 0 | 12 | -41 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Dunaharaszti MTK win, at 52.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 76% and over 2.5 goals at 79%.
A 53% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.