· Analysis updated 19:38 UTC
Dunaharaszti MTK vs Paksi SE II Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.25 expected goals for Dunaharaszti MTK and 1.73 for Paksi SE II, a combined total of 3.98. That distribution gives Dunaharaszti MTK the largest share of the 1X2 market at 50%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 76% for over 2.5 goals and 74% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 50% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Dunaharaszti MTK win
49.9% probability
Expected goals
2.25 – 1.73
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Dunaharaszti MTK home form
5 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Paksi SE II away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Dunaharaszti MTK to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 50%, against 50% / 20% / 30% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.25 goals for Dunaharaszti MTK and 1.73 for Paksi SE II, a combined 3.98 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
70%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
50%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–18.2%
- 1–17.3%
- 2–27.1%
- 1–26.3%
- 3–16.1%
Recent form
Dunaharaszti MTK
- 2026-08-29T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Kaposvar · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-08-26T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Iváncsa · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-08-21T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Ikarus BSE · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-08-15T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Érdi VSE · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-12T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Majosi · 2-1 (W)
Paksi SE II
- 2026-10-03T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Szekszárd · 8-1 (W)
- 2026-09-27T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Siofok · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-19T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Budafoki LC · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs PTE-PEAC · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-29T09:00:00.000Z · H vs MTK Budapest II · 2-4 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
NB III - Southwest table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pécsi MFC | 13 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 36 | 37 |
| 2 | Kaposvar | 12 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 18 | 25 |
| 3 | Ferencváros II | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 21 |
| 4 | Iváncsa | 12 | 7 | 0 | 5 | 6 | 21 |
| 5 | Majosi | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 21 |
| 6 | Dunaharaszti MTK | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 20 |
| 7 | Budafoki LC | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 18 |
| 8 | Siofok | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 17 |
| 9 | Érdi VSE | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 16 |
| 10 | PTE-PEAC | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | -2 | 16 |
| 11 | MTK Budapest II | 11 | 5 | 0 | 6 | 5 | 15 |
| 12 | Budaörs | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | -19 | 12 |
| 13 | Paksi SE II | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 10 |
| 14 | Sárbogárd | 12 | 1 | 2 | 9 | -28 | 5 |
| 15 | Szekszárd | 12 | 0 | 0 | 12 | -41 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Dunaharaszti MTK win, at 49.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 74% and over 2.5 goals at 76%.
A 50% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.