Dunav Ruse vs Sevlievo Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.95 expected goals for Dunav Ruse and 1.26 for Sevlievo, a combined total of 3.21. That distribution gives Dunav Ruse the largest share of the 1X2 market at 54%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 62% for over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 54% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Dunav Ruse win

53.5% probability

Low confidenceLow data38/100

Expected goals

1.95 – 1.26

Model version

poisson-v1

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Dunav Ruse home form
5 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Sevlievo away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Dunav Ruse to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 54%, against 54% / 22% / 25% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.95 goals for Dunav Ruse and 1.26 for Sevlievo, a combined 3.21 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Dunav Ruse win54%

Draw22%

Sevlievo win25%

Double chance 1X

76%

Double chance 12

78%

Double chance X2

47%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals83%

Over 2.5 goals62%

Over 3.5 goals40%

Both teams to score61%

Correct score

1–19.9%
2–19.7%
1–07.9%
2–07.7%
3–16.3%

Recent form

Dunav Ruse

2026-10-24T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Spartak Varna · 2-0 (W)
2026-10-17T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Rilski Sportist · 3-2 (W)
2026-10-11T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Septemvri Sofia · 3-2 (W)
2026-10-03T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Ludogorets II · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-26T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Cherno More Varna · 0-1 (L)

Sevlievo

2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Chavdar Troyan · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs OFK Levski · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Pavlikeni · 1-0 (W)
2026-08-29T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Spartak Pleven II · 2-2 (D)
2026-08-22T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Lokomotiv Mezdra · 2-2 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Second League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	CSKA Sofia II	13	7	4	2	14	25
2	Vihren	13	7	4	2	13	25
3	Chernomorets 1919 Burgas	13	7	4	2	13	25
4	Fratria	12	6	4	2	7	22
5	Beroe	13	6	3	4	5	21
6	Hebar 1918	13	6	2	5	8	20
7	Yantra 2019	13	6	2	5	2	20
8	Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa	13	5	5	3	1	20
9	Rilski Sportist	13	5	4	4	2	19
10	Marek	13	5	3	5	0	18
11	Nesebar	13	5	3	5	2	18
12	Spartak Pleven	13	5	2	6	-10	17
13	Etar Veliko Tarnovo	12	5	2	5	-1	17
14	Ludogorets II	11	4	3	4	0	15
15	Sportist Svoge	13	2	5	6	-5	11
16	Montana	12	3	2	7	-11	11
17	Dobrudzha	12	2	3	7	-9	9
18	Pirin Blagoevgrad	13	0	1	12	-31	1

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Dunav Ruse win, at 53.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 61% and over 2.5 goals at 62%.

A 54% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.