Oriel Park · Referee M. Houlihan · Analysis updated 07:26 UTC
Dundalk vs Galway United Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.78 expected goals for Dundalk and 1.42 for Galway United, a combined total of 3.21. That distribution gives Dundalk the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 62% for over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Dundalk win
46.2% probability
Expected goals
1.78 – 1.42
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Dundalk home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Galway United away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Dundalk to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 46%, against 46% / 23% / 31% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.78 goals for Dundalk and 1.42 for Galway United, a combined 3.21 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
69%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
54%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.3%
- 2–19.2%
- 1–27.3%
- 1–07.2%
- 2–26.5%
Recent form
Dundalk
- 2026-10-17T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Sligo Rovers · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-02T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Bohemians · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-18T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Shelbourne · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-14T18:45:00.000Z · H vs St Patrick's Athl. · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-11T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Waterford · 1-1 (D)
Galway United
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Derry City · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-25T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Shelbourne · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-18T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Derry City · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-14T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Sligo Rovers · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-11T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Bohemians · 2-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Premier Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Shamrock Rovers | 33 | 19 | 8 | 6 | 21 | 65 |
| 2 | St Patrick's Athl. | 32 | 17 | 8 | 7 | 27 | 59 |
| 3 | Bohemians | 33 | 17 | 8 | 8 | 18 | 59 |
| 4 | Shelbourne | 33 | 10 | 13 | 10 | 1 | 43 |
| 5 | Derry City | 32 | 9 | 14 | 9 | 3 | 41 |
| 6 | Dundalk | 33 | 10 | 11 | 12 | -5 | 41 |
| 7 | Galway United | 32 | 9 | 11 | 12 | -6 | 38 |
| 8 | Waterford | 32 | 7 | 13 | 12 | -10 | 34 |
| 9 | Drogheda United | 33 | 8 | 10 | 15 | -15 | 34 |
| 10 | Sligo Rovers | 33 | 5 | 8 | 20 | -34 | 23 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Dundalk win, at 46.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 63% and over 2.5 goals at 62%.
A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.