Tannadice Park · Analysis updated 16:27 UTC
Dundee Utd vs Motherwell Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.55 expected goals for Dundee Utd and 1.03 for Motherwell, a combined total of 2.58. That distribution gives Dundee Utd the largest share of the 1X2 market at 50%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 48% for over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 50% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Dundee Utd win
49.5% probability
Expected goals
1.55 – 1.03
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Dundee Utd home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Motherwell away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
75%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
51%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.1%
- 1–011.8%
- 2–19.4%
- 2–09.1%
- 0–17.8%
Recent form
Dundee Utd
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Hibernian · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs ST Mirren · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Falkirk · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-02T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Motherwell · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-08-29T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Kilmarnock · 4-0 (W)
Motherwell
- 2026-10-11T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Celtic · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Dundee · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-15T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Aberdeen · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Rangers · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-02T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Dundee Utd · 3-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-02T18:45:00.000Z · Dundee Utd 0-3 Motherwell (Premiership)
- 2026-02-28T15:00:00.000Z · Dundee Utd 0-2 Motherwell (Premiership)
- 2025-12-13T15:00:00.000Z · Dundee Utd 0-0 Motherwell (Premiership)
- 2025-10-29T19:45:00.000Z · Dundee Utd 0-2 Motherwell (Premiership)
- 2025-02-22T15:00:00.000Z · Dundee Utd 1-0 Motherwell (Premiership)
- 2024-12-14T15:00:00.000Z · Dundee Utd 3-4 Motherwell (Premiership)
- 2024-10-30T19:45:00.000Z · Dundee Utd 1-2 Motherwell (Premiership)
- 2024-09-20T18:45:00.000Z · Dundee Utd 1-2 Motherwell (League Cup)
- 2023-05-28T14:00:00.000Z · Dundee Utd 2-3 Motherwell (Premiership)
- 2023-04-15T14:00:00.000Z · Dundee Utd 2-1 Motherwell (Premiership)
Premiership table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Celtic | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 21 |
| 2 | Rangers | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 19 |
| 3 | Heart Of Midlothian | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 16 |
| 4 | Dundee | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 13 |
| 5 | ST Johnstone | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 11 |
| 6 | Dundee Utd | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 11 |
| 7 | ST Mirren | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 10 |
| 8 | Aberdeen | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 8 |
| 9 | Motherwell | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 8 |
| 10 | Hibernian | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 7 |
| 11 | Falkirk | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -4 | 6 |
| 12 | Kilmarnock | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -11 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Dundee Utd win, at 49.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 51% and over 2.5 goals at 48%.
A 50% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.