Dens Park · Referee Calum Scott, Scotland · Analysis updated 16:20 UTC
Dundee vs Aberdeen Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.39 expected goals for Dundee and 0.82 for Aberdeen, a combined total of 2.21. That distribution gives Dundee the largest share of the 1X2 market at 50%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 38% for over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 50% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Dundee win
50.2% probability
Expected goals
1.39 – 0.82
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Dundee home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Aberdeen away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
78%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
50%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–015.3%
- 1–112.5%
- 0–011.0%
- 2–010.6%
- 0–19.0%
Recent form
Dundee
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Motherwell · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-06T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Heart Of Midlothian · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-02T18:45:00.000Z · H vs ST Johnstone · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-30T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Hibernian · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-22T16:45:00.000Z · A vs Dundee Utd · 2-0 (W)
Aberdeen
- 2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Dunfermline · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Hibernian · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-15T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Motherwell · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T16:45:00.000Z · A vs Kilmarnock · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Kilmarnock · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-15T14:00:00.000Z · Dundee 0-3 Aberdeen (League Cup)
- 2026-08-08T14:00:00.000Z · Dundee 2-0 Aberdeen (Premiership)
- 2026-05-17T13:00:00.000Z · Dundee 3-2 Aberdeen (Premiership)
- 2026-02-21T15:00:00.000Z · Dundee 3-2 Aberdeen (Premiership)
- 2025-12-06T15:00:00.000Z · Dundee 1-3 Aberdeen (Premiership)
- 2025-10-05T14:00:00.000Z · Dundee 0-4 Aberdeen (Premiership)
- 2025-02-15T15:00:00.000Z · Dundee 1-2 Aberdeen (Premiership)
- 2024-11-09T17:30:00.000Z · Dundee 1-4 Aberdeen (Premiership)
- 2024-09-28T14:00:00.000Z · Dundee 1-2 Aberdeen (Premiership)
- 2024-04-13T14:00:00.000Z · Dundee 0-0 Aberdeen (Premiership)
Premiership table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Celtic | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 21 |
| 2 | Rangers | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 19 |
| 3 | Heart Of Midlothian | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 16 |
| 4 | Dundee | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 13 |
| 5 | ST Johnstone | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 11 |
| 6 | Dundee Utd | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 11 |
| 7 | ST Mirren | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 10 |
| 8 | Aberdeen | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 8 |
| 9 | Motherwell | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 8 |
| 10 | Hibernian | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 7 |
| 11 | Falkirk | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -4 | 6 |
| 12 | Kilmarnock | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -11 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Dundee win, at 50.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 42% and over 2.5 goals at 38%.
A 50% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.