Dens Park · Analysis updated 16:44 UTC
Dundee vs Rangers Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.74 expected goals for Dundee and 2.01 for Rangers, a combined total of 2.75. That distribution gives Rangers the largest share of the 1X2 market at 67%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 52% for over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score, with 0–2 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 67% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Rangers win
67.1% probability
Expected goals
0.74 – 2.01
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Dundee home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Rangers away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
33%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
87%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–212.9%
- 0–112.8%
- 1–29.6%
- 1–19.5%
- 0–38.7%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 9.6%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.10 (model 54.7% vs market 44.3%, edge +10.4 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.10 | 44.3% | 54.7% | 1.83 | +10.4 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 3.00 | 31.5% | 32.9% | 3.04 | +1.4 |
| Match result | Draw | 4.60 | 19.8% | 20.1% | 4.98 | +0.3 |
| Match result | Away | 1.36 | 67.1% | 67.1% | 1.49 | -0.0 |
| Match result | Home | 7.00 | 13.0% | 12.8% | 7.81 | -0.2 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.08 | 87.6% | 87.2% | 1.15 | -0.4 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.17 | 80.9% | 79.9% | 1.25 | -1.0 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.67 | 55.7% | 45.3% | 2.21 | -10.4 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Dundee
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Motherwell · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-06T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Heart Of Midlothian · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-02T18:45:00.000Z · H vs ST Johnstone · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-30T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Hibernian · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-22T16:45:00.000Z · A vs Dundee Utd · 2-0 (W)
Rangers
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Kilmarnock · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Celtic · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Celtic · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-09T18:45:00.000Z · H vs ST Mirren · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Motherwell · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-01-25T15:00:00.000Z · Dundee 0-3 Rangers (Premiership)
- 2025-11-09T15:00:00.000Z · Dundee 0-3 Rangers (Premiership)
- 2025-08-09T16:45:00.000Z · Dundee 1-1 Rangers (Premiership)
- 2025-03-29T17:30:00.000Z · Dundee 3-4 Rangers (Premiership)
- 2025-01-09T20:00:00.000Z · Dundee 1-1 Rangers (Premiership)
- 2024-12-21T15:00:00.000Z · Dundee 0-1 Rangers (Premiership)
- 2024-09-21T16:30:00.000Z · Dundee 0-3 Rangers (League Cup)
- 2024-05-14T18:30:00.000Z · Dundee 2-5 Rangers (Premiership)
- 2024-04-17T19:00:00.000Z · Dundee 0-0 Rangers (Premiership)
- 2023-12-09T15:00:00.000Z · Dundee 1-3 Rangers (Premiership)
Premiership table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Celtic | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 21 |
| 2 | Rangers | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 19 |
| 3 | Heart Of Midlothian | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 16 |
| 4 | Dundee | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 13 |
| 5 | ST Johnstone | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 11 |
| 6 | Dundee Utd | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 11 |
| 7 | ST Mirren | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 10 |
| 8 | Aberdeen | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 8 |
| 9 | Motherwell | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 8 |
| 10 | Hibernian | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 7 |
| 11 | Falkirk | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -4 | 6 |
| 12 | Kilmarnock | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -11 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Rangers win, at 67.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 45% and over 2.5 goals at 52%.
A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.