Dens Park · Referee R. Hardie · Analysis updated 13:41 UTC
Dundee vs ST Johnstone Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.58 expected goals for Dundee and 1.00 for ST Johnstone, a combined total of 2.58. That distribution gives Dundee the largest share of the 1X2 market at 51%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 48% for over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 51% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Dundee win
50.7% probability
Expected goals
1.58 – 1.00
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Dundee home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
ST Johnstone away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 8 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
76%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
49%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–012.0%
- 1–112.0%
- 2–09.4%
- 2–19.4%
- 0–07.6%
Recent form
Dundee
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Motherwell · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-06T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Heart Of Midlothian · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-02T18:45:00.000Z · H vs ST Johnstone · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-30T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Hibernian · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-22T16:45:00.000Z · A vs Dundee Utd · 2-0 (W)
ST Johnstone
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Falkirk · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-09T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Celtic · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-06T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Hibernian · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-02T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Dundee · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-29T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Heart Of Midlothian · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-02T18:45:00.000Z · Dundee 1-1 ST Johnstone (Premiership)
- 2025-05-18T14:00:00.000Z · Dundee 2-0 ST Johnstone (Premiership)
- 2025-03-01T15:00:00.000Z · Dundee 1-1 ST Johnstone (Premiership)
- 2025-01-05T15:00:00.000Z · Dundee 3-1 ST Johnstone (Premiership)
- 2024-10-26T14:00:00.000Z · Dundee 1-2 ST Johnstone (Premiership)
- 2024-03-30T15:00:00.000Z · Dundee 2-1 ST Johnstone (Premiership)
- 2024-02-11T14:00:00.000Z · Dundee 2-1 ST Johnstone (Premiership)
- 2023-09-02T14:00:00.000Z · Dundee 2-2 ST Johnstone (Premiership)
- 2022-04-23T14:00:00.000Z · Dundee 1-1 ST Johnstone (Premiership)
- 2022-01-26T19:45:00.000Z · Dundee 0-0 ST Johnstone (Premiership)
Premiership table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Celtic | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 21 |
| 2 | Rangers | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 19 |
| 3 | Heart Of Midlothian | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 16 |
| 4 | Dundee | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 13 |
| 5 | ST Johnstone | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 11 |
| 6 | Dundee Utd | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 11 |
| 7 | ST Mirren | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 10 |
| 8 | Aberdeen | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 8 |
| 9 | Motherwell | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 8 |
| 10 | Hibernian | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 7 |
| 11 | Falkirk | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -4 | 6 |
| 12 | Kilmarnock | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -11 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Dundee win, at 50.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 50% and over 2.5 goals at 48%.
A 51% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.