Dundela vs Warrenpoint Town Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.65 expected goals for Dundela and 1.86 for Warrenpoint Town, a combined total of 3.51. That distribution gives Warrenpoint Town the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 68% for over 2.5 goals and 68% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Draw/Away

65.4% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.65 – 1.86

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Dundela home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Warrenpoint Town away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Warrenpoint Town to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 43%, against 35% / 22% / 43% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.65 goals for Dundela and 1.86 for Warrenpoint Town, a combined 3.51 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Dundela win35%

Draw22%

Warrenpoint Town win43%

Double chance 1X

57%

Double chance 12

78%

Double chance X2

65%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals87%

Over 2.5 goals68%

Over 3.5 goals47%

Both teams to score68%

Correct score

1–19.2%
1–28.5%
2–17.6%
2–27.0%
0–15.6%

Recent form

Dundela

2026-10-20T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Moyola Park · 1-4 (L)
2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Rathfriland · 0-1 (L)
2026-10-09T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Newry City AFC · 1-3 (L)
2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Queen's University · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Armagh City · 2-0 (W)

Warrenpoint Town

2026-08-21T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Newry City AFC · 3-0 (W)
2026-08-15T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Ards · 1-3 (L)
2026-08-11T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Armagh City · 2-0 (W)
2026-08-08T14:00:00.000Z · A vs H&W Welders · 0-3 (L)
2026-07-21T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Cliftonville FC · 1-2 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Championship table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Annagh United	12	7	4	1	13	25
2	Glenavon FC	12	7	3	2	16	24
3	Newington Youth	12	7	2	3	5	23
4	Queen's University	12	6	2	4	12	20
5	Institute	12	6	2	4	5	20
6	Newry City AFC	12	5	4	3	0	19
7	Warrenpoint Town	12	5	3	4	4	18
8	Ballinamallard United	12	5	3	4	1	18
9	H&W Welders	12	5	1	6	-2	16
10	Ards	12	4	3	5	-1	15
11	Loughgall	12	3	5	4	-6	14
12	Moyola Park	12	4	2	6	-10	14
13	Rathfriland	12	4	0	8	-11	12
14	Dundela	12	2	5	5	-5	11
15	Strabane Athletic	12	2	4	6	-10	10
16	Armagh City	12	0	5	7	-11	5

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 65.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 68% and over 2.5 goals at 68%.

A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.