East End Park · Referee R. Hardie · Analysis updated 10:48 UTC
Dunfermline vs Queen's Park Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.33 expected goals for Dunfermline and 0.65 for Queen's Park, a combined total of 1.98. That distribution gives Dunfermline the largest share of the 1X2 market at 53%, with the draw at 29%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 32% for over 2.5 goals and 35% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 18%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 53% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Dunfermline win
53.0% probability
Expected goals
1.33 – 0.65
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Dunfermline home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Queen's Park away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
82%
Double chance 12
71%
Double chance X2
47%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–018.4%
- 0–013.9%
- 2–012.2%
- 1–112.0%
- 0–19.0%
Recent form
Dunfermline
- 2026-10-20T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Partick · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Livingston · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Ayr Utd · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Aberdeen · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Morton · 1-0 (W)
Queen's Park
- 2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Morton · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-13T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Inverness CT · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Raith Rovers · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-25T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Arbroath · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-18T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Ayr Utd · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-04-25T14:00:00.000Z · Dunfermline 2-0 Queen's Park (Championship)
- 2026-02-28T15:00:00.000Z · Dunfermline 1-0 Queen's Park (Championship)
- 2025-12-13T15:00:00.000Z · Dunfermline 1-1 Queen's Park (Championship)
- 2025-10-04T14:00:00.000Z · Dunfermline 0-0 Queen's Park (Championship)
- 2025-04-12T14:00:00.000Z · Dunfermline 1-0 Queen's Park (Championship)
- 2025-02-22T15:00:00.000Z · Dunfermline 0-0 Queen's Park (Championship)
- 2024-11-09T15:00:00.000Z · Dunfermline 1-2 Queen's Park (Championship)
- 2024-09-28T14:00:00.000Z · Dunfermline 1-2 Queen's Park (Championship)
- 2024-04-20T14:00:00.000Z · Dunfermline 0-0 Queen's Park (Championship)
- 2024-02-10T15:00:00.000Z · Dunfermline 0-3 Queen's Park (Championship)
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Partick | 12 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 11 | 25 |
| 2 | Stenhousemuir | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 23 |
| 3 | Raith Rovers | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 21 |
| 4 | Inverness CT | 12 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 19 |
| 5 | Dunfermline | 11 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 18 |
| 6 | Livingston | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 17 |
| 7 | Ayr Utd | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 12 |
| 8 | Arbroath | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | -11 | 11 |
| 9 | Morton | 11 | 2 | 1 | 8 | -9 | 7 |
| 10 | Queen's Park | 12 | 2 | 1 | 9 | -13 | 7 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Dunfermline win, at 53.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 35% and over 2.5 goals at 32%.
A 53% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.