East End Park · Referee R. Lee · Analysis updated 14:28 UTC
Dunfermline vs Ross County Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.16 expected goals for Dunfermline and 2.22 for Ross County, a combined total of 3.38. That distribution gives Ross County the largest share of the 1X2 market at 61%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 66% for over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 61% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Ross County win
61.3% probability
Expected goals
1.16 – 2.22
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Dunfermline home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Ross County away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Ross County to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 61%, against 19% / 20% / 61% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.16 goals for Dunfermline and 2.22 for Ross County, a combined 3.38 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
39%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
81%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–29.7%
- 1–18.8%
- 0–28.4%
- 0–17.6%
- 1–37.2%
Recent form
Dunfermline
- 2026-10-20T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Partick · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Livingston · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Ayr Utd · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Aberdeen · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Morton · 1-0 (W)
Ross County
- 2026-10-13T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Forfar Athletic · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Montrose · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Alloa Athletic · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Hearts U21 · 14-0 (W)
- 2026-09-22T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Clachnacuddin · 5-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Ross County win, at 61.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 61% and over 2.5 goals at 66%.
A 61% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.