· Analysis updated 14:03 UTC
Dunston UTS vs Scarborough Athletic Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.34 expected goals for Dunston UTS and 0.91 for Scarborough Athletic, a combined total of 2.25. That distribution gives Dunston UTS the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 39% for over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Dunston UTS win
46.7% probability
Expected goals
1.34 – 0.91
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Dunston UTS home form
3 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Scarborough Athletic away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Dunston UTS to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 47%, against 47% / 28% / 25% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.34 goals for Dunston UTS and 0.91 for Scarborough Athletic, a combined 2.25 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
75%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
53%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–014.1%
- 1–112.8%
- 0–010.5%
- 0–19.6%
- 2–09.5%
Recent form
Dunston UTS
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Avro · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Scarborough Athletic · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Morpeth Town · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Vauxhall Motors · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-29T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Grimsby Borough · 1-0 (W)
Scarborough Athletic
- 2026-10-06T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Macclesfield · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Macclesfield · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Brackley Town · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Dunston UTS · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Merthyr Town · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Dunston UTS win, at 46.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 44% and over 2.5 goals at 39%.
A 47% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.