· Analysis updated 12:57 UTC
Duque de Caxias vs Artsul Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.78 expected goals for Duque de Caxias and 1.08 for Artsul, a combined total of 2.85. That distribution gives Duque de Caxias the largest share of the 1X2 market at 54%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 54% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 54% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Duque de Caxias win
53.8% probability
Expected goals
1.78 – 1.08
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Duque de Caxias home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Artsul away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Duque de Caxias to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 54%, against 54% / 23% / 23% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.78 goals for Duque de Caxias and 1.08 for Artsul, a combined 2.85 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
77%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
46%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.0%
- 1–010.3%
- 2–19.8%
- 2–09.1%
- 0–16.2%
Recent form
Duque de Caxias
- 2026-06-23T17:45:00.000Z · A vs Olaria · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-06-17T17:45:00.000Z · H vs Olaria · 0-2 (L)
- 2025-11-22T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Bonsucesso · 0-2 (L)
- 2025-11-15T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Bonsucesso · 1-0 (W)
- 2025-11-08T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Carapebus · 2-0 (W)
Artsul
- 2026-10-09T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Petrópolis · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-03T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Serrano RJ · 3-4 (L)
- 2026-09-26T21:30:00.000Z · A vs Macaé · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-19T17:45:00.000Z · H vs Carapebus · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-12T17:45:00.000Z · H vs Campo Grande · 3-2 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Carioca - 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Niteroiense | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 16 |
| 2 | Duque de Caxias | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 15 |
| 3 | Serrano RJ | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 14 |
| 4 | Goytacaz | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 14 |
| 5 | Petrópolis | 7 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 13 |
| 6 | Artsul | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 10 |
| 7 | Campo Grande | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -5 | 8 |
| 8 | Macaé | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -1 | 7 |
| 9 | Nova Cidade | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 6 |
| 10 | São Cristóvão RJ | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 6 |
| 11 | Audax Rio | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -6 | 4 |
| 12 | Carapebus | 7 | 0 | 1 | 6 | -11 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Duque de Caxias win, at 53.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 55% and over 2.5 goals at 54%.
A 54% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.