· Analysis updated 03:47 UTC
Duque de Caxias vs Serrano RJ Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.35 expected goals for Duque de Caxias and 0.87 for Serrano RJ, a combined total of 2.21. That distribution gives Duque de Caxias the largest share of the 1X2 market at 48%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 38% for over 2.5 goals and 43% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 48% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Duque de Caxias win
48.0% probability
Expected goals
1.35 – 0.87
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Duque de Caxias home form
9 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Serrano RJ away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Duque de Caxias to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 48%, against 48% / 28% / 24% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.35 goals for Duque de Caxias and 0.87 for Serrano RJ, a combined 2.21 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
76%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
52%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–014.7%
- 1–112.8%
- 0–010.9%
- 2–09.9%
- 0–19.5%
Recent form
Duque de Caxias
- 2026-10-24T21:30:00.000Z · A vs Macaé · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-21T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Artsul · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-17T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Campo Grande · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-10-10T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Audax Rio · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-03T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Goytacaz · 1-2 (L)
Serrano RJ
- 2026-10-10T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Macaé · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-03T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Artsul · 4-3 (W)
- 2026-09-26T17:45:00.000Z · H vs Campo Grande · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T17:45:00.000Z · A vs Audax Rio · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T17:45:00.000Z · H vs Goytacaz · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Carioca - 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Duque de Caxias | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 19 |
| 2 | Niteroiense | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 19 |
| 3 | Serrano RJ | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 18 |
| 4 | Goytacaz | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 18 |
| 5 | Petrópolis | 9 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 4 | 15 |
| 6 | Artsul | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 13 |
| 7 | Campo Grande | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | -3 | 12 |
| 8 | Macaé | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 11 |
| 9 | São Cristóvão RJ | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | -3 | 7 |
| 10 | Nova Cidade | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -4 | 6 |
| 11 | Audax Rio | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | -7 | 5 |
| 12 | Carapebus | 9 | 0 | 2 | 7 | -13 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Duque de Caxias win, at 48.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 43% and over 2.5 goals at 38%.
A 48% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.