Durango vs Aretxabaleta Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.27 expected goals for Durango and 1.31 for Aretxabaleta, a combined total of 2.58. That distribution gives Aretxabaleta the largest share of the 1X2 market at 38%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 48% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 38% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Draw/Away

64.2% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.27 – 1.31

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Durango home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Aretxabaleta away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 5 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Durango win36%

Draw27%

Aretxabaleta win38%

Double chance 1X

62%

Double chance 12

74%

Double chance X2

64%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals73%

Over 2.5 goals48%

Over 3.5 goals26%

Both teams to score53%

Correct score

1–112.6%
0–19.9%
1–09.6%
1–28.3%
2–18.0%

Recent form

Durango

2026-09-26T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Beasain · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-19T16:15:00.000Z · H vs Aretxabaleta · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-13T09:15:00.000Z · A vs Santurtzi · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-05T17:00:00.000Z · H vs San Ignacio · 3-3 (D)
2026-05-09T10:15:00.000Z · H vs Santurtzi · 4-1 (W)

Aretxabaleta

2026-10-11T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Pasaia KE · 4-2 (W)
2026-10-03T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Lagun Onak · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-26T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Derio · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-19T16:15:00.000Z · A vs Durango · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-13T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Beasain · 0-0 (D)

Head-to-head

2026-09-19T16:15:00.000Z · Durango 0-0 Aretxabaleta (Tercera División RFEF - Group 4)
2026-01-24T16:00:00.000Z · Durango 1-1 Aretxabaleta (Tercera División RFEF - Group 4)
2025-09-14T14:30:00.000Z · Durango 1-1 Aretxabaleta (Tercera División RFEF - Group 4)
2025-04-12T15:15:00.000Z · Durango 3-1 Aretxabaleta (Tercera División RFEF - Group 4)
2024-12-01T15:30:00.000Z · Durango 2-1 Aretxabaleta (Tercera División RFEF - Group 4)

Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Aurrerá Vitoria	6	4	1	1	2	13
2	Leioa	6	3	3	0	10	12
3	Derio	6	3	3	0	5	12
4	Real Sociedad III	6	3	2	1	3	11
5	Aretxabaleta	6	3	2	1	3	11
6	Deportivo Alavés III	6	3	1	2	7	10
7	Pasaia KE	6	3	1	2	-1	10
8	San Ignacio	6	2	2	2	2	8
9	Touring	6	2	2	2	1	8
10	Sodupe	6	2	2	2	-4	8
11	Durango	6	1	4	1	0	7
12	Beasain	6	2	1	3	-1	7
13	Lagun Onak	6	2	1	3	-3	7
14	Erandio	6	2	0	4	-2	6
15	Santurtzi	6	2	0	4	-4	6
16	Eibar III	6	1	2	3	-1	5
17	R. Union B	6	1	2	3	-5	5
18	Amurrio Club	6	0	1	5	-12	1

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 64.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 53% and over 2.5 goals at 48%.

A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.