Durango vs Deusto Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Durango vs Deusto in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 4: no fixture-specific data has reached us for this match yet, so the figures below are a competition-average baseline with standard home advantage — not a rated model prediction on these two teams. They are excluded from our featured picks, accumulators and value selections, and will be replaced automatically once team and market data arrives.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Home/Draw

69.8% probability

Baseline estimate10/100

Expected goals

1.48 – 1.18

Model version

poisson-baseline-v1

No fixture-specific data was available. These numbers are a competition-average prior with standard home advantage — not a model opinion on these two teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Durango home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Durango to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 44% / 26% / 30% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.48 goals for Durango and 1.18 for Deusto, a combined 2.66 — an open game on paper.
Why this is a baseline estimate
No fixture-specific data was available for Durango or Deusto yet, so these numbers are a Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 scoring average with standard home advantage rather than a rated model pick. They are excluded from our featured picks, accumulators and value selections, and are replaced automatically as team data arrives.

Match result (1X2)

Durango win44%

Draw26%

Deusto win30%

Double chance 1X

70%

Double chance 12

74%

Double chance X2

56%

Correct score

1–112.2%
1–010.4%
2–19.0%
0–18.3%
2–07.7%

Recent form

Durango

2026-09-26T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Beasain · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-19T16:15:00.000Z · H vs Aretxabaleta · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-13T09:15:00.000Z · A vs Santurtzi · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-05T17:00:00.000Z · H vs San Ignacio · 3-3 (D)
2026-05-09T10:15:00.000Z · H vs Santurtzi · 4-1 (W)

Deusto

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Aurrerá Vitoria	6	4	1	1	2	13
2	Leioa	6	3	3	0	10	12
3	Derio	6	3	3	0	5	12
4	Real Sociedad III	6	3	2	1	3	11
5	Aretxabaleta	6	3	2	1	3	11
6	Deportivo Alavés III	6	3	1	2	7	10
7	Pasaia KE	6	3	1	2	-1	10
8	San Ignacio	6	2	2	2	2	8
9	Touring	6	2	2	2	1	8
10	Sodupe	6	2	2	2	-4	8
11	Durango	6	1	4	1	0	7
12	Beasain	6	2	1	3	-1	7
13	Lagun Onak	6	2	1	3	-3	7
14	Erandio	6	2	0	4	-2	6
15	Santurtzi	6	2	0	4	-4	6
16	Eibar III	6	1	2	3	-1	5
17	R. Union B	6	1	2	3	-5	5
18	Amurrio Club	6	0	1	5	-12	1

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 69.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

A 70% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.