Estadio Francisco Zarco · Analysis updated 09:11 UTC
Durango vs Leones Negros Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.81 expected goals for Durango and 1.18 for Leones Negros, a combined total of 2.99. That distribution gives Durango the largest share of the 1X2 market at 52%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 58% for over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 52% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Durango win
52.1% probability
Expected goals
1.81 – 1.18
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Durango home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Leones Negros away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Durango to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 52%, against 52% / 23% / 25% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.81 goals for Durango and 1.18 for Leones Negros, a combined 2.99 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
75%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
48%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.7%
- 2–19.7%
- 1–09.1%
- 2–08.2%
- 1–26.3%
Recent form
Durango
- 2026-10-24T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Venados FC · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-10-18T03:00:00.000Z · H vs Tapatío · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-10-11T01:00:00.000Z · A vs CDS Tampico Madero · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-04T01:00:00.000Z · H vs Mineros de Zacatecas · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-09-27T01:00:00.000Z · A vs Dorados · 1-0 (W)
Leones Negros
- 2026-04-18T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Celaya · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-04-16T01:00:00.000Z · A vs Celaya · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-04-11T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Tritons Vallarta · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-03-27T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Tecos · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-03-21T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Guerreros · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Liga Premier Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | La Tribu de Cd. Juarez | 9 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 19 |
| 1 | Dragones de Oaxaca | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 17 | 22 |
| 2 | Mineros de Fresnillo | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 11 | 19 |
| 2 | Artesanos Metepec | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 21 |
| 3 | Acatlan | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 19 |
| 3 | Acambaro | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 19 | 20 |
| 4 | Vaqueros Reynosa | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 16 |
| 4 | Delfines Coatzacoalcos | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 15 |
| 5 | Correcaminos UAT II | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 15 |
| 5 | Halcones Negros | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 14 |
| 6 | FC Santiago | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 14 |
| 6 | Guerreros del Pacifico | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -2 | 13 |
| 7 | Guerreros | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 9 |
| 7 | Calor de San Pedro | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | -5 | 12 |
| 8 | Atlético Saltillo | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | -8 | 8 |
| 8 | Real Refineros | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -2 | 9 |
| 9 | Real Apodaca | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -9 | 4 |
| 9 | Ciervos | 9 | 2 | 0 | 7 | -19 | 5 |
| 10 | Héroes de Zaci | 8 | 0 | 1 | 7 | -20 | 2 |
| 10 | Cañoneros Marina | 8 | 0 | 0 | 8 | -26 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Durango win, at 52.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 58% and over 2.5 goals at 58%.
A 52% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.