Chatsworth Stadium · Analysis updated 09:05 UTC
Durban City vs ASPL 2000 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.00 expected goals for Durban City and 0.75 for ASPL 2000, a combined total of 1.75. That distribution gives Durban City the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 33%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 26% for over 2.5 goals and 33% for both teams to score, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 17%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
73.5% probability
Expected goals
1.00 – 0.75
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Durban City home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
ASPL 2000 away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Durban City to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 40%, against 40% / 33% / 27% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.00 goals for Durban City and 0.75 for ASPL 2000, a combined 1.75 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
74%
Double chance 12
67%
Double chance X2
60%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–017.4%
- 1–017.4%
- 0–113.0%
- 1–113.0%
- 2–08.7%
Recent form
Durban City
- 2026-10-25T13:00:00.000Z · A vs ASPL 2000 · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-10-18T13:00:00.000Z · H vs ASPL 2000 · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-13T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Amazulu · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Milford FC · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-17T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Orlando Pirates · 0-2 (L)
ASPL 2000
- 2026-10-25T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Durban City · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-18T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Durban City · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-12T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Galaxy · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-04T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Galaxy · 1-1 (D)
- 2025-05-28T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Pamplemousses · 1-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 73.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 33% and over 2.5 goals at 26%.
A 74% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.