Düren Merzenich vs Bergisch Gladbach Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.18 expected goals for Düren Merzenich and 1.41 for Bergisch Gladbach, a combined total of 3.59. That distribution gives Düren Merzenich the largest share of the 1X2 market at 55%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 70% for over 2.5 goals and 67% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 55% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Düren Merzenich win

55.1% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data38/100

Expected goals

2.18 – 1.41

Model version

poisson-v1

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Düren Merzenich home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Bergisch Gladbach away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Düren Merzenich to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 55%, against 55% / 21% / 24% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.18 goals for Düren Merzenich and 1.41 for Bergisch Gladbach, a combined 3.59 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Düren Merzenich win55%

Draw21%

Bergisch Gladbach win24%

Double chance 1X

76%

Double chance 12

80%

Double chance X2

45%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals87%

Over 2.5 goals70%

Over 3.5 goals48%

Both teams to score67%

Correct score

2–19.2%
1–18.5%
3–16.7%
2–06.6%
2–26.5%

Recent form

Düren Merzenich

2026-10-23T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Porz · 2-1 (W)
2026-10-18T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Fortuna Köln II · 3-2 (W)
2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Hennef 05 · 3-1 (W)
2026-10-02T18:00:00.000Z · H vs TuS BW Königsdorf · 5-3 (W)
2026-09-25T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Wegberg-Beeck · 1-2 (L)

Bergisch Gladbach

2026-10-24T12:00:00.000Z · H vs SV Rodinghausen · 1-1 (D)
2026-10-17T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Borussia M'gladbach II · 1-2 (L)
2026-10-10T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Schalke 04 II · 1-5 (L)
2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Hilden · 2-4 (L)
2026-09-26T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Westfalia Rhynern · 4-2 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Oberliga - Mittelrhein table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Wegberg-Beeck	9	7	1	1	12	22
2	SSV Merten	9	6	1	2	18	19
3	Eintracht Hohkeppel	9	5	2	2	8	17
4	Frechen	9	5	2	2	4	17
5	Düren Merzenich	9	5	1	3	2	16
6	Lindenthal-Hohenlind	9	4	3	2	1	15
7	Fortuna Köln II	8	4	1	3	4	13
8	VfL Vichttal	9	3	3	3	7	12
9	Bornheim	9	4	0	5	0	12
10	Siegburger SV	9	3	2	4	-1	11
11	Hürth	9	2	4	3	-4	10
12	Chlodwig Zulpich	9	3	1	5	-5	10
13	Hennef 05	9	3	1	5	-6	10
14	TuS BW Königsdorf	8	2	0	6	-23	6
15	Porz	9	1	2	6	-7	5
16	Neunkirchen-Seelscheid	9	1	2	6	-10	5

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Düren Merzenich win, at 55.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 67% and over 2.5 goals at 70%.

A 55% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.