Maiden Castle · Analysis updated 13:39 UTC
Durham W vs Sheffield United W Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.90 expected goals for Durham W and 2.51 for Sheffield United W, a combined total of 4.42. That distribution gives Sheffield United W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 52%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 82% for over 2.5 goals and 78% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 52% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Sheffield United W win
51.5% probability
Expected goals
1.90 – 2.51
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Durham W home form
0 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Sheffield United W away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 9 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
48%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
70%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–27.3%
- 2–26.9%
- 1–36.1%
- 2–35.8%
- 1–15.8%
Recent form
Durham W
- 2026-10-25T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Watford W · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-10-21T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Birmingham City W · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-10-18T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Burnley W · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-10-04T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Newcastle United W · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-30T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Manchester United W · 1-5 (L)
Sheffield United W
- 2026-09-06T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Leicester City FC W · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-05-02T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Bristol City W · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-04-26T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Durham W · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-04-22T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Ipswich Town W · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-04-03T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Southampton W · 2-5 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · Durham W 1-4 Sheffield United W (Women's Championship)
- 2026-04-26T11:00:00.000Z · Durham W 2-1 Sheffield United W (Women's Championship)
- 2025-12-14T12:00:00.000Z · Durham W 0-1 Sheffield United W (FA Women's Cup)
- 2025-11-02T13:00:00.000Z · Durham W 1-2 Sheffield United W (Women's Championship)
- 2025-09-24T18:00:00.000Z · Durham W 1-1 Sheffield United W (WSL Cup)
- 2025-02-02T13:00:00.000Z · Durham W 1-1 Sheffield United W (Women's Championship)
- 2024-11-24T12:00:00.000Z · Durham W 1-1 Sheffield United W (WSL Cup)
- 2024-09-08T11:00:00.000Z · Durham W 2-1 Sheffield United W (Women's Championship)
- 2024-02-04T12:00:00.000Z · Durham W 2-5 Sheffield United W (Women's Championship)
- 2023-11-23T19:00:00.000Z · Durham W 1-1 Sheffield United W (WSL Cup)
Women's Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Newcastle United W | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 13 | 16 |
| 2 | Ipswich Town W | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 14 |
| 3 | Sunderland W | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 13 |
| 4 | Bristol City W | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 10 |
| 5 | Nottingham Forest W | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 10 |
| 6 | Southampton W | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 7 | Wolverhampton W | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 7 |
| 8 | Leicester City FC W | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -4 | 7 |
| 9 | Sheffield United W | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -3 | 6 |
| 10 | Watford W | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -3 | 6 |
| 11 | Burnley W | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -7 | 2 |
| 12 | Durham W | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | -13 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Sheffield United W win, at 51.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 78% and over 2.5 goals at 82%.
A 52% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.