18 Temmuz Stadyumu · Analysis updated 08:57 UTC
Düzcespor vs Pazarspor Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.98 expected goals for Düzcespor and 0.90 for Pazarspor, a combined total of 1.88. That distribution gives Düzcespor the largest share of the 1X2 market at 36%, with the draw at 32%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 29% for over 2.5 goals and 37% for both teams to score, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 36% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
68.0% probability
Expected goals
0.98 – 0.90
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Düzcespor home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Pazarspor away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 7 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
68%
Double chance 12
68%
Double chance X2
64%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–015.3%
- 1–015.0%
- 0–113.8%
- 1–113.5%
- 2–07.3%
Recent form
Düzcespor
- 2026-10-24T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Karabük İdman Yurdu · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-10-18T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Küçükçekmece Sinopspor · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-11T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Pazarspor · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-07T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Zonguldak Kömürspor · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Zonguldak Kömürspor · 0-0 (D)
Pazarspor
- 2026-10-24T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Beykoz İshaklıspor · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-18T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Tokat Bld Plevnespor · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-11T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Düzcespor · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-07T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Erbaaspor · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-03T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Küçükçekmece Sinopspor · 3-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-10-11T12:00:00.000Z · Düzcespor 1-2 Pazarspor (3. Lig - Group 1)
- 2026-03-29T11:00:00.000Z · Düzcespor 1-0 Pazarspor (3. Lig - Group 3)
- 2025-12-07T10:00:00.000Z · Düzcespor 1-1 Pazarspor (3. Lig - Group 3)
- 2019-02-03T10:00:00.000Z · Düzcespor 2-0 Pazarspor (3. Lig - Group 2)
- 2018-09-16T13:00:00.000Z · Düzcespor 1-0 Pazarspor (3. Lig - Group 2)
- 2017-03-05T11:00:00.000Z · Düzcespor 0-0 Pazarspor (3. Lig - Group 3)
- 2016-10-22T12:30:00.000Z · Düzcespor 2-1 Pazarspor (3. Lig - Group 3)
3. Lig - Group 3 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yeşilyurt Belediyespor | 8 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 27 | 22 |
| 2 | Karaköprü Belediyespor | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 21 |
| 3 | Talasgücü Belediyespor | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 13 | 20 |
| 4 | Kırşehir Belediyespor | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 18 | 19 |
| 5 | Mazıdağı Fosfatspor | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 12 | 18 |
| 6 | Niğde Belediyesispor | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 18 |
| 7 | Bitlis Özgüzelderespor | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 12 | 17 |
| 8 | Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 12 |
| 9 | Kırıkkale Büyük Anadolu | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 10 |
| 10 | Adana Adaletgucu | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | -3 | 9 |
| 11 | Osmaniyespor | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | -4 | 9 |
| 12 | Ağrı 1970 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -3 | 8 |
| 13 | Silifke Belediyespor | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -8 | 7 |
| 14 | Karaman FK | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | -16 | 6 |
| 15 | Yozgat Bld Bozokspor | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -17 | 5 |
| 16 | Diyarbekirspor | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -6 | 4 |
| 17 | Yeni Malatyaspor | 8 | 0 | 0 | 8 | -24 | 0 |
| 18 | Adanaspor | 8 | 0 | 0 | 8 | -27 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 68.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 37% and over 2.5 goals at 29%.
A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.