· Analysis updated 06:05 UTC
DVS 33 Ermelo vs Sparta Nijkerk Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.03 expected goals for DVS 33 Ermelo and 1.58 for Sparta Nijkerk, a combined total of 3.60. That distribution gives DVS 33 Ermelo the largest share of the 1X2 market at 48%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 70% for over 2.5 goals and 69% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 48% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
DVS 33 Ermelo win
48.3% probability
Expected goals
2.03 – 1.58
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
DVS 33 Ermelo home form
3 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Sparta Nijkerk away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates DVS 33 Ermelo to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 48%, against 48% / 21% / 30% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.03 goals for DVS 33 Ermelo and 1.58 for Sparta Nijkerk, a combined 3.60 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
70%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
52%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–18.8%
- 1–18.7%
- 2–26.9%
- 1–26.9%
- 3–16.0%
Recent form
DVS 33 Ermelo
- 2026-09-26T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Sportlust '46 · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-22T18:00:00.000Z · A vs GVVV Veenendaal · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Hollandia · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · A vs TEC · 4-4 (D)
- 2026-09-05T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Sparta Nijkerk · 1-3 (L)
Sparta Nijkerk
- 2026-10-03T12:45:00.000Z · A vs SVZW · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Staphorst · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-23T18:00:00.000Z · H vs UDI '19 · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Eemdijk · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Hercules · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Derde Divisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ACV | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 16 | 23 |
| 1 | Noordwijk | 10 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 20 | 25 |
| 2 | VV Scherpenzeel | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 23 |
| 2 | FC Lisse | 10 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 14 | 25 |
| 3 | Harkemase Boys | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 23 |
| 3 | Excelsior Maassluis | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 14 | 23 |
| 4 | Excelsior '31 | 10 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 19 | 22 |
| 4 | Rijnvogels | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 20 |
| 5 | SC Genemuiden | 10 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 21 |
| 5 | UDI '19 | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 20 |
| 6 | TEC | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 12 | 20 |
| 6 | Dongen | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 16 |
| 7 | Sportlust '46 | 10 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 19 |
| 7 | Zwaluwen | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 16 |
| 8 | Purmersteijn | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 18 |
| 8 | Poortugaal | 10 | 5 | 0 | 5 | -2 | 15 |
| 9 | Sparta Nijkerk | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 14 |
| 9 | GOES | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | -6 | 14 |
| 10 | Hoogeveen | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 13 |
| 10 | Gemert | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | -3 | 13 |
| 11 | ADO '20 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | -2 | 13 |
| 11 | Blauw Geel | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 12 |
| 12 | Hercules | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | -10 | 10 |
| 12 | Roosendaal | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | -5 | 10 |
| 13 | Staphorst | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -5 | 9 |
| 13 | TOGB | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -8 | 9 |
| 14 | Eemdijk | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | -15 | 7 |
| 14 | Groene Ster | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -10 | 9 |
| 15 | DVS 33 Ermelo | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | -6 | 6 |
| 15 | UNA | 10 | 1 | 5 | 4 | -4 | 8 |
| 16 | Dovo | 10 | 1 | 2 | 7 | -13 | 5 |
| 16 | Vvsb | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | -8 | 8 |
| 17 | Hollandia | 9 | 1 | 1 | 7 | -11 | 4 |
| 17 | Achilles Veen | 10 | 2 | 0 | 8 | -14 | 6 |
| 18 | SVZW | 10 | 0 | 1 | 9 | -19 | 1 |
| 18 | EVV | 10 | 0 | 3 | 7 | -12 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is DVS 33 Ermelo win, at 48.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 69% and over 2.5 goals at 70%.
A 48% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.