Dynamo Dresden vs 1. FC Magdeburg Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.05 expected goals for Dynamo Dresden and 1.85 for 1. FC Magdeburg, a combined total of 2.90. That distribution gives 1. FC Magdeburg the largest share of the 1X2 market at 56%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 55% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 56% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

1. FC Magdeburg win

56.1% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.05 – 1.85

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Dynamo Dresden home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
1. FC Magdeburg away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates 1. FC Magdeburg to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 56%, against 21% / 23% / 56% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.05 goals for Dynamo Dresden and 1.85 for 1. FC Magdeburg, a combined 2.90 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Dynamo Dresden win21%

Draw23%

1. FC Magdeburg win56%

Double chance 1X

44%

Double chance 12

77%

Double chance X2

79%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals79%

Over 2.5 goals55%

Over 3.5 goals33%

Both teams to score55%

Correct score

1–110.7%
0–110.2%
1–29.9%
0–29.4%
1–36.1%

Recent form

Dynamo Dresden

2026-10-02T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Teplice · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-19T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Hertha BSC · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-12T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Eintracht Braunschweig · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-05T18:30:00.000Z · H vs VfL Bochum · 1-2 (L)
2026-08-29T11:00:00.000Z · A vs 1. FC Heidenheim · 3-5 (L)

1. FC Magdeburg

2026-09-18T16:30:00.000Z · A vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-12T11:00:00.000Z · H vs 1. FC Kaiserslautern · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-06T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Hertha BSC · 1-2 (L)
2026-08-30T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Holstein Kiel · 2-0 (W)
2026-08-23T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Bahlinger SC · 4-0 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

2. Bundesliga table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Hertha BSC	6	6	0	0	10	18
2	1. FC Nürnberg	6	5	1	0	10	16
3	1. FC Heidenheim	6	4	1	1	2	13
4	VfL Wolfsburg	6	3	2	1	7	11
5	1. FC Kaiserslautern	6	3	2	1	2	11
6	1. FC Magdeburg	6	3	1	2	2	10
7	Energie Cottbus	6	2	2	2	1	8
8	FC St. Pauli	6	1	4	1	0	7
9	VfL Bochum	6	2	1	3	-1	7
10	Hannover 96	6	2	1	3	-2	7
11	VfL Osnabrück	6	2	1	3	-3	7
12	SpVgg Greuther Fürth	6	1	3	2	-2	6
13	Arminia Bielefeld	6	1	2	3	-2	5
14	Karlsruher SC	6	1	2	3	-6	5
15	Eintracht Braunschweig	6	1	1	4	-1	4
16	Holstein Kiel	6	0	4	2	-3	4
17	Dynamo Dresden	6	1	1	4	-6	4
18	SV Darmstadt 98	6	1	1	4	-8	4

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is 1. FC Magdeburg win, at 56.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 55% and over 2.5 goals at 55%.

A 56% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.