· Analysis updated 13:25 UTC
Dynamo Dresden vs Energie Cottbus Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 3.45 expected goals for Dynamo Dresden and 1.20 for Energie Cottbus, a combined total of 4.65. That distribution gives Dynamo Dresden the largest share of the 1X2 market at 79%, with the draw at 12%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 83% for over 2.5 goals and 67% for both teams to score, with 3–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 79% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Dynamo Dresden win
79.2% probability
Expected goals
3.45 – 1.20
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Dynamo Dresden home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Energie Cottbus away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
91%
Double chance 12
88%
Double chance X2
21%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 3–17.9%
- 2–16.8%
- 4–16.8%
- 3–06.5%
- 2–05.7%
Recent form
Dynamo Dresden
- 2026-10-02T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Teplice · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Hertha BSC · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Eintracht Braunschweig · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-05T18:30:00.000Z · H vs VfL Bochum · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-29T11:00:00.000Z · A vs 1. FC Heidenheim · 3-5 (L)
Energie Cottbus
- 2026-10-03T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Lech Poznan · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-20T11:30:00.000Z · H vs FC St. Pauli · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-13T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Karlsruher SC · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T11:00:00.000Z · A vs VfL Wolfsburg · 4-4 (D)
- 2026-08-29T11:00:00.000Z · H vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth · 3-4 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-07-25T11:00:00.000Z · Dynamo Dresden 1-2 Energie Cottbus (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2025-11-13T12:30:00.000Z · Dynamo Dresden 3-0 Energie Cottbus (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2025-01-25T13:00:00.000Z · Dynamo Dresden 1-1 Energie Cottbus (3. Liga)
- 2024-08-09T17:00:00.000Z · Dynamo Dresden 4-2 Energie Cottbus (3. Liga)
- 2016-04-02T12:00:00.000Z · Dynamo Dresden 2-0 Energie Cottbus (3. Liga)
- 2015-10-17T12:00:00.000Z · Dynamo Dresden 0-1 Energie Cottbus (3. Liga)
- 2014-12-13T13:00:00.000Z · Dynamo Dresden 1-0 Energie Cottbus (3. Liga)
- 2014-08-03T12:00:00.000Z · Dynamo Dresden 3-1 Energie Cottbus (3. Liga)
- 2014-04-04T16:30:00.000Z · Dynamo Dresden 0-0 Energie Cottbus (2. Bundesliga)
- 2013-10-27T12:30:00.000Z · Dynamo Dresden 1-0 Energie Cottbus (2. Bundesliga)
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Dynamo Dresden win, at 79.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 3–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 67% and over 2.5 goals at 83%.
A 79% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.