Dynamo Kyiv vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 0.70 expected goals for Dynamo Kyiv and 1.50 for Epitsentr Dunayivtsi, a combined total of 2.20. That distribution gives Epitsentr Dunayivtsi the largest share of the 1X2 market at 57%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 38% for over 2.5 goals and 39% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 17%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 57% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi win

56.5% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

0.70 – 1.50

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Dynamo Kyiv home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Epitsentr Dunayivtsi to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 57%, against 17% / 26% / 57% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.70 goals for Dynamo Kyiv and 1.50 for Epitsentr Dunayivtsi, a combined 2.20 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

Dynamo Kyiv win17%

Draw26%

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi win57%

Double chance 1X

44%

Double chance 12

74%

Double chance X2

83%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals65%

Over 2.5 goals38%

Over 3.5 goals18%

Both teams to score39%

Correct score

0–116.6%
0–212.5%
1–111.6%
0–011.1%
1–28.7%

Recent form

Dynamo Kyiv

2026-10-11T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Karpaty · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-19T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Zorya Luhansk · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-14T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-10T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Nyva Vinnytsya · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-06T10:00:00.000Z · H vs LNZ Cherkasy · 0-0 (D)

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi

2026-10-03T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Bukovyna · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-19T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Livyi Bereh · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-14T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Dynamo Kyiv · 0-3 (L)
2026-09-09T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Karbon Cherkasy · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-06T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Bukovyna · 0-0 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Premier League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Shakhtar Donetsk	8	7	0	1	14	21
2	Polessya	8	6	1	1	10	19
3	Dynamo Kyiv	7	5	1	1	5	16
4	FC Kharkiv	7	5	0	2	9	15
5	Karpaty	8	4	2	2	9	14
6	Zorya Luhansk	8	3	2	3	-2	11
7	LNZ Cherkasy	8	3	2	3	-2	11
8	Veres Rivne	9	2	3	4	-5	9
9	Kolos Kovalivka	7	2	2	3	-2	8
10	Bukovyna	8	1	5	2	-2	8
11	Epitsentr Dunayivtsi	8	2	2	4	-3	8
12	Livyi Bereh	7	1	4	2	-1	7
13	Obolon'-Brovar	8	1	4	3	-8	7
14	Chornomorets	7	1	2	4	-5	5
15	Kryvbas KR	6	1	2	3	-3	5
16	Kudrivka	8	0	2	6	-14	2

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Epitsentr Dunayivtsi win, at 56.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 39% and over 2.5 goals at 38%.

A 57% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.