· Analysis updated 15:52 UTC
Dynamo Makhachkala II vs Sevastopol Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.70 expected goals for Dynamo Makhachkala II and 1.55 for Sevastopol, a combined total of 2.25. That distribution gives Sevastopol the largest share of the 1X2 market at 58%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 39% for over 2.5 goals and 40% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 58% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Sevastopol win
57.8% probability
Expected goals
0.70 – 1.55
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Dynamo Makhachkala II home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Sevastopol to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 58%, against 17% / 26% / 58% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.70 goals for Dynamo Makhachkala II and 1.55 for Sevastopol, a combined 2.25 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 39% and both teams to score at 40%, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 16%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
42%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
83%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–116.3%
- 0–212.7%
- 1–111.4%
- 0–010.5%
- 1–28.9%
Recent form
Dynamo Makhachkala II
- 2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Nart Cherkessk · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-27T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Druzhba · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Pobeda · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-13T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Izberbash · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-05T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Astrakhan · 1-1 (D)
Sevastopol
- 2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Lugansk · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Rostov II · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-22T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Rubin Yalta · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-05T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Kyzyltash · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-29T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Spartak Nalchik · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Second League - Group 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sevastopol | 21 | 16 | 2 | 3 | 21 | 50 |
| 2 | Shahter Taganrog | 21 | 14 | 4 | 3 | 22 | 46 |
| 3 | Rostov II | 21 | 14 | 4 | 3 | 29 | 46 |
| 4 | Rubin Yalta | 20 | 9 | 7 | 4 | 10 | 34 |
| 5 | Pobeda | 20 | 10 | 3 | 7 | 11 | 33 |
| 6 | Kyzyltash | 21 | 9 | 4 | 8 | 6 | 31 |
| 7 | Nart Cherkessk | 20 | 9 | 3 | 8 | 8 | 30 |
| 8 | Spartak Nalchik | 20 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 7 | 28 |
| 9 | Druzhba | 20 | 7 | 6 | 7 | -2 | 27 |
| 10 | Lugansk | 21 | 6 | 6 | 9 | -6 | 24 |
| 11 | Astrakhan | 20 | 5 | 5 | 10 | -10 | 20 |
| 12 | Izberbash | 21 | 6 | 0 | 15 | -38 | 18 |
| 13 | Angust Nazran | 20 | 4 | 4 | 12 | -12 | 16 |
| 14 | FK Chayka 2 | 21 | 4 | 2 | 15 | -26 | 14 |
| 15 | Dynamo Makhachkala II | 21 | 3 | 5 | 13 | -20 | 14 |
| 16 | PSK Dinskaya | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Khimik Dzerzhinsk | 24 | 20 | 2 | 2 | 45 | 62 |
| 2 | KDV | 24 | 17 | 2 | 5 | 16 | 53 |
| 3 | Pobeda Nizhniy Novgorod | 24 | 15 | 4 | 5 | 20 | 49 |
| 4 | Akron II | 24 | 10 | 3 | 11 | 11 | 33 |
| 5 | Krylya Sovetov II | 24 | 7 | 9 | 8 | 1 | 30 |
| 6 | Dinamo Barnaul | 24 | 7 | 6 | 11 | -22 | 27 |
| 1 | Orenburg II | 23 | 7 | 8 | 8 | -2 | 29 |
| 2 | Ural II | 24 | 6 | 7 | 11 | -10 | 25 |
| 3 | Izhevsk | 23 | 5 | 8 | 10 | -3 | 23 |
| 4 | Rubin Kazan 2 | 24 | 5 | 8 | 11 | -10 | 23 |
| 5 | Nosta | 24 | 5 | 6 | 13 | -28 | 21 |
| 6 | Chelyabinsk II | 24 | 5 | 5 | 14 | -18 | 20 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Sevastopol win, at 57.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 40% and over 2.5 goals at 39%.
A 58% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.