Dynamo vs CSKA Moscow Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.63 expected goals for Dynamo and 1.38 for CSKA Moscow, a combined total of 3.00. That distribution gives Dynamo the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 58% for over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Home/Draw

67.5% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.63 – 1.38

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Dynamo home form
15 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
CSKA Moscow away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Dynamo to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 43%, against 43% / 24% / 33% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.63 goals for Dynamo and 1.38 for CSKA Moscow, a combined 3.00 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Dynamo win43%

Draw24%

CSKA Moscow win33%

Double chance 1X

68%

Double chance 12

76%

Double chance X2

57%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals80%

Over 2.5 goals58%

Over 3.5 goals35%

Both teams to score60%

Correct score

1–111.1%
2–19.0%
1–08.1%
1–27.6%
0–16.8%

Recent form

Dynamo

2026-10-04T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Rodina Moskva · 3-2 (W)
2026-09-17T15:30:00.000Z · A vs FC Rostov · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-12T15:30:00.000Z · H vs FC Orenburg · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-06T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Spartak Moscow · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-03T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Akhmat · 3-0 (W)

CSKA Moscow

2026-10-11T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Rodina Moskva · 3-0 (W)
2026-10-04T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Arsenal Tula · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-27T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Nizhny Novgorod · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-17T17:45:00.000Z · A vs Dinamo Makhachkala · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-12T17:45:00.000Z · H vs Rubin · 1-1 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Premier League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Dynamo	10	7	1	2	7	22
2	CSKA Moscow	10	6	4	0	9	22
3	Zenit	10	7	0	3	11	21
4	FC Krasnodar	10	6	3	1	6	21
5	Spartak Moscow	10	6	2	2	9	20
6	Rubin	10	2	6	2	0	12
7	FC Orenburg	10	2	6	2	1	12
8	Baltika	10	3	3	4	2	12
9	Dinamo Makhachkala	10	4	0	6	-5	12
10	Krylia Sovetov	10	2	6	2	-1	12
11	Akhmat	10	2	5	3	0	11
12	FC Rostov	10	3	2	5	-6	11
13	Lokomotiv	10	2	4	4	2	10
14	Akron	10	1	5	4	-8	8
15	Rodina Moskva	10	1	2	7	-15	5
16	Fakel	10	0	3	7	-12	3

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 67.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 60% and over 2.5 goals at 58%.

A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.