VTB Arena · Referee Rafael Shafeev, Russia · Analysis updated 08:17 UTC
Dynamo vs Dinamo Makhachkala Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.75 expected goals for Dynamo and 1.50 for Dinamo Makhachkala, a combined total of 2.25. That distribution gives Dinamo Makhachkala the largest share of the 1X2 market at 55%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 39% for over 2.5 goals and 41% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 55% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Dinamo Makhachkala win
55.1% probability
Expected goals
0.75 – 1.50
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Dynamo home form
15 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Dinamo Makhachkala away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 7 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
45%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
81%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–115.8%
- 0–211.9%
- 1–111.9%
- 0–010.5%
- 1–28.9%
Recent form
Dynamo
- 2026-10-24T09:45:00.000Z · A vs Akron · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-18T13:15:00.000Z · H vs CSKA Moscow · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-14T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Akhmat · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-11T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Rubin · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-04T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Rodina Moskva · 3-2 (W)
Dinamo Makhachkala
- 2026-10-25T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Zenit · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-17T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Akron · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-14T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Zenit · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-10T10:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Orenburg · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Leningradets · 3-2 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-09T11:30:00.000Z · Dynamo 3-1 Dinamo Makhachkala (Premier League)
- 2025-11-23T14:30:00.000Z · Dynamo 3-0 Dinamo Makhachkala (Premier League)
- 2025-08-31T17:30:00.000Z · Dynamo 0-1 Dinamo Makhachkala (Premier League)
- 2025-03-08T16:30:00.000Z · Dynamo 4-0 Dinamo Makhachkala (Premier League)
- 2024-09-29T16:00:00.000Z · Dynamo 1-0 Dinamo Makhachkala (Premier League)
- 2024-09-18T18:15:00.000Z · Dynamo 2-2 Dinamo Makhachkala (Cup)
- 2024-08-14T16:30:00.000Z · Dynamo 2-1 Dinamo Makhachkala (Cup)
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Zenit | 12 | 9 | 0 | 3 | 14 | 27 |
| 2 | Dynamo | 12 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 25 |
| 3 | CSKA Moscow | 12 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 9 | 25 |
| 4 | FC Krasnodar | 12 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 23 |
| 5 | Spartak Moscow | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 11 | 23 |
| 6 | FC Orenburg | 12 | 3 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 16 |
| 7 | FC Rostov | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | -4 | 15 |
| 8 | Krylia Sovetov | 12 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 15 |
| 9 | Baltika | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 14 |
| 10 | Dinamo Makhachkala | 12 | 4 | 1 | 7 | -7 | 13 |
| 11 | Rubin | 12 | 2 | 6 | 4 | -6 | 12 |
| 12 | Akron | 12 | 2 | 6 | 4 | -6 | 12 |
| 13 | Lokomotiv | 12 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 11 |
| 14 | Akhmat | 12 | 2 | 5 | 5 | -2 | 11 |
| 15 | Rodina Moskva | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | -14 | 9 |
| 16 | Fakel | 12 | 1 | 3 | 8 | -12 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Dinamo Makhachkala win, at 55.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 41% and over 2.5 goals at 39%.
A 55% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.