VTB Arena · Referee N. Novikov · Analysis updated 10:44 UTC
Dynamo vs FC Krasnodar Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.40 expected goals for Dynamo and 1.45 for FC Krasnodar, a combined total of 2.85. That distribution gives FC Krasnodar the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 54% for over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
63.6% probability
Expected goals
1.40 – 1.45
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Dynamo home form
15 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
FC Krasnodar away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates FC Krasnodar to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 39%, against 36% / 25% / 39% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.40 goals for Dynamo and 1.45 for FC Krasnodar, a combined 2.85 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
61%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
64%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.7%
- 1–28.5%
- 0–18.4%
- 2–18.2%
- 1–08.1%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 3.9%), compared with our model probability.
No selection clears our 3-point edge threshold — the market looks efficiently priced.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | Under 3.5 | 1.38 | 66.7% | 68.1% | 1.47 | +1.4 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.31 | 73.9% | 75.0% | 1.33 | +1.1 |
| Match result | Away | 2.54 | 37.9% | 38.6% | 2.59 | +0.7 |
| Both teams to score | No | 2.21 | 41.8% | 42.3% | 2.36 | +0.5 |
| Match result | Home | 2.67 | 36.1% | 36.4% | 2.75 | +0.3 |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 1.77 | 54.0% | 54.2% | 1.85 | +0.2 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | 2.08 | 46.0% | 45.8% | 2.18 | -0.2 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.59 | 58.2% | 57.7% | 1.73 | -0.5 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.51 | 64.1% | 63.6% | 1.57 | -0.5 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.56 | 62.0% | 61.4% | 1.63 | -0.6 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.70 | 26.0% | 25.0% | 4.00 | -1.0 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | 2.77 | 33.3% | 31.9% | 3.13 | -1.4 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Dynamo
- 2026-10-18T13:15:00.000Z · H vs CSKA Moscow · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-14T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Akhmat · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-11T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Rubin · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-04T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Rodina Moskva · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-17T15:30:00.000Z · A vs FC Rostov · 3-0 (W)
FC Krasnodar
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Rostov · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-17T13:15:00.000Z · A vs FC Orenburg · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-13T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Akron · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-05T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Krylia Sovetov · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-01T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Fakel · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 63.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 58% and over 2.5 goals at 54%.
A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.