RZD Arena · Referee Pavel Kukuyan, Russia · Analysis updated 12:48 UTC
Dynamo vs FC Orenburg Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.38 expected goals for Dynamo and 0.93 for FC Orenburg, a combined total of 2.30. That distribution gives Dynamo the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 40% for over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Dynamo win
47.3% probability
Expected goals
1.38 – 0.93
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Dynamo home form
15 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
FC Orenburg away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 8 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
75%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
53%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–013.8%
- 1–112.8%
- 0–010.0%
- 2–09.5%
- 0–19.3%
Recent form
Dynamo
- 2026-10-24T09:45:00.000Z · A vs Akron · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-18T13:15:00.000Z · H vs CSKA Moscow · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-14T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Akhmat · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-11T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Rubin · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-04T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Rodina Moskva · 3-2 (W)
FC Orenburg
- 2026-10-03T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Tekstilshchik · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-10-03T08:30:00.000Z · A vs Lokomotiv · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-17T13:15:00.000Z · H vs FC Krasnodar · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-12T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Dynamo · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-06T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Akron · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-12T15:30:00.000Z · Dynamo 1-0 FC Orenburg (Premier League)
- 2026-07-07T13:30:00.000Z · Dynamo 2-1 FC Orenburg (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2026-04-04T14:30:00.000Z · Dynamo 3-3 FC Orenburg (Premier League)
- 2025-09-21T09:00:00.000Z · Dynamo 3-1 FC Orenburg (Premier League)
- 2025-03-29T11:00:00.000Z · Dynamo 5-1 FC Orenburg (Premier League)
- 2024-09-01T12:00:00.000Z · Dynamo 2-2 FC Orenburg (Premier League)
- 2024-04-24T13:00:00.000Z · Dynamo 2-1 Orenburg (Premier League)
- 2024-04-17T14:00:00.000Z · Dynamo 4-2 FC Orenburg (Cup)
- 2024-02-08T14:00:00.000Z · Dynamo 4-1 FC Orenburg (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2023-11-12T13:30:00.000Z · Dynamo 2-0 Orenburg (Premier League)
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Zenit | 12 | 9 | 0 | 3 | 14 | 27 |
| 2 | Dynamo | 12 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 25 |
| 3 | CSKA Moscow | 12 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 9 | 25 |
| 4 | FC Krasnodar | 12 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 23 |
| 5 | Spartak Moscow | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 11 | 23 |
| 6 | FC Orenburg | 12 | 3 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 16 |
| 7 | FC Rostov | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | -4 | 15 |
| 8 | Krylia Sovetov | 12 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 15 |
| 9 | Baltika | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 14 |
| 10 | Dinamo Makhachkala | 12 | 4 | 1 | 7 | -7 | 13 |
| 11 | Rubin | 12 | 2 | 6 | 4 | -6 | 12 |
| 12 | Akron | 12 | 2 | 6 | 4 | -6 | 12 |
| 13 | Lokomotiv | 12 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 11 |
| 14 | Akhmat | 12 | 2 | 5 | 5 | -2 | 11 |
| 15 | Rodina Moskva | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | -14 | 9 |
| 16 | Fakel | 12 | 1 | 3 | 8 | -12 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Dynamo win, at 47.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 45% and over 2.5 goals at 40%.
A 47% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.