Dynamo vs Spartak Moscow Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.40 expected goals for Dynamo and 1.42 for Spartak Moscow, a combined total of 2.82. That distribution gives Spartak Moscow the largest share of the 1X2 market at 38%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 54% for over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 38% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Draw/Away

63.2% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.40 – 1.42

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Dynamo home form
15 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Spartak Moscow away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 7 of the last 10 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Dynamo win37%

Draw25%

Spartak Moscow win38%

Double chance 1X

62%

Double chance 12

75%

Double chance X2

63%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals77%

Over 2.5 goals54%

Over 3.5 goals31%

Both teams to score57%

Correct score

1–111.8%
0–18.5%
1–28.4%
1–08.3%
2–18.3%

Recent form

Dynamo

2026-10-18T13:15:00.000Z · H vs CSKA Moscow · 3-1 (W)
2026-10-14T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Akhmat · 2-1 (W)
2026-10-11T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Rubin · 1-0 (W)
2026-10-04T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Rodina Moskva · 3-2 (W)
2026-09-17T15:30:00.000Z · A vs FC Rostov · 3-0 (W)

Spartak Moscow

2026-10-10T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Krylia Sovetov · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-16T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Fakel · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Rostov · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-06T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Dynamo · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-02T17:45:00.000Z · H vs Rodina Moskva · 3-1 (W)

Head-to-head

2026-09-06T15:30:00.000Z · Dynamo 2-1 Spartak Moscow (Premier League)
2026-03-18T17:45:00.000Z · Dynamo 0-1 Spartak Moscow (Cup)
2026-03-05T17:45:00.000Z · Dynamo 5-2 Spartak Moscow (Cup)
2025-12-06T13:45:00.000Z · Dynamo 1-1 Spartak Moscow (Premier League)
2025-09-13T13:45:00.000Z · Dynamo 2-2 Spartak Moscow (Premier League)
2025-05-11T16:30:00.000Z · Dynamo 2-0 Spartak Moscow (Premier League)
2025-04-29T17:30:00.000Z · Dynamo 1-2 Spartak Moscow (Cup)
2025-02-07T16:30:00.000Z · Dynamo 0-1 Spartak Moscow (Friendlies Clubs)
2024-10-02T16:00:00.000Z · Dynamo 2-3 Spartak Moscow (Cup)
2024-09-22T13:30:00.000Z · Dynamo 2-2 Spartak Moscow (Premier League)

Premier League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Dynamo	11	8	1	2	9	25
2	Zenit	11	8	0	3	12	24
3	Spartak Moscow	11	7	2	2	13	23
4	CSKA Moscow	11	6	4	1	7	22
5	FC Krasnodar	11	6	4	1	6	22
6	FC Orenburg	11	2	7	2	1	13
7	Baltika	11	3	4	4	2	13
8	Dinamo Makhachkala	11	4	1	6	-5	13
9	FC Rostov	11	3	3	5	-6	12
10	Rubin	11	2	6	3	-4	12
11	Krylia Sovetov	11	2	6	3	-2	12
12	Lokomotiv	11	2	5	4	2	11
13	Akhmat	11	2	5	4	-1	11
14	Akron	11	1	6	4	-8	9
15	Fakel	11	1	3	7	-11	6
16	Rodina Moskva	11	1	3	7	-15	6

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 63.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 57% and over 2.5 goals at 54%.

A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.