Telsiai Central Stadium · Referee V. Paulauskas · Analysis updated 06:55 UTC
Džiugas Telšiai vs Hegelmann Litauen Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.82 expected goals for Džiugas Telšiai and 1.12 for Hegelmann Litauen, a combined total of 2.95. That distribution gives Džiugas Telšiai the largest share of the 1X2 market at 54%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 57% for over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 54% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Džiugas Telšiai win
53.8% probability
Expected goals
1.82 – 1.12
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Džiugas Telšiai home form
2 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Hegelmann Litauen away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Džiugas Telšiai to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 54%, against 54% / 23% / 23% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.82 goals for Džiugas Telšiai and 1.12 for Hegelmann Litauen, a combined 2.95 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
77%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
46%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.8%
- 2–19.8%
- 1–09.6%
- 2–08.7%
- 1–26.0%
Recent form
Džiugas Telšiai
- 2026-10-17T14:30:00.000Z · H vs TransINVEST Vilnius · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-19T11:15:00.000Z · A vs Banga · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-06T15:45:00.000Z · A vs Kauno Žalgiris · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-08-31T15:45:00.000Z · H vs Hegelmann Litauen · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-23T16:30:00.000Z · A vs FK Zalgiris Vilnius · 0-2 (L)
Hegelmann Litauen
- 2026-10-18T14:00:00.000Z · A vs FK Zalgiris Vilnius · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-20T11:15:00.000Z · H vs Suduva Marijampole · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Šiauliai · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-07T15:45:00.000Z · H vs Panevėžys · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-08-31T15:45:00.000Z · A vs Džiugas Telšiai · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
A Lyga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kauno Žalgiris | 28 | 14 | 9 | 5 | 36 | 51 |
| 2 | Suduva Marijampole | 29 | 13 | 11 | 5 | 10 | 50 |
| 3 | FK Zalgiris Vilnius | 29 | 14 | 5 | 10 | 11 | 47 |
| 4 | TransINVEST Vilnius | 29 | 13 | 7 | 9 | 8 | 46 |
| 5 | Banga | 29 | 11 | 8 | 10 | 3 | 41 |
| 6 | Džiugas Telšiai | 29 | 10 | 9 | 10 | -4 | 39 |
| 7 | Panevėžys | 29 | 10 | 5 | 14 | -13 | 35 |
| 8 | Hegelmann Litauen | 29 | 4 | 14 | 11 | -17 | 26 |
| 9 | Šiauliai | 29 | 3 | 8 | 18 | -34 | 17 |
| 10 | FK Trakai | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Džiugas Telšiai win, at 53.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 57% and over 2.5 goals at 57%.
A 54% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.