Telsiai Central Stadium · Analysis updated 16:48 UTC
Džiugas Telšiai vs TransINVEST Vilnius Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.25 expected goals for Džiugas Telšiai and 1.60 for TransINVEST Vilnius, a combined total of 2.85. That distribution gives TransINVEST Vilnius the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 54% for over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
TransINVEST Vilnius win
45.5% probability
Expected goals
1.25 – 1.60
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Džiugas Telšiai home form
4 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
TransINVEST Vilnius away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates TransINVEST Vilnius to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 46%, against 30% / 25% / 46% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.25 goals for Džiugas Telšiai and 1.60 for TransINVEST Vilnius, a combined 2.85 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
55%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
70%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.6%
- 1–29.3%
- 0–19.3%
- 0–27.4%
- 1–07.2%
Recent form
Džiugas Telšiai
- 2026-09-06T15:45:00.000Z · A vs Kauno Žalgiris · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-08-31T15:45:00.000Z · H vs Hegelmann Litauen · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-23T16:30:00.000Z · A vs FK Zalgiris Vilnius · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-17T15:45:00.000Z · H vs Suduva Marijampole · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-09T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Šiauliai · 4-3 (W)
TransINVEST Vilnius
- 2026-09-19T16:30:00.000Z · H vs FK Zalgiris Vilnius · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-14T15:45:00.000Z · A vs Banga · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-06T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Suduva Marijampole · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-24T15:45:00.000Z · H vs Šiauliai · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-08-16T15:45:00.000Z · A vs Kauno Žalgiris · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
A Lyga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kauno Žalgiris | 28 | 14 | 9 | 5 | 36 | 51 |
| 2 | Suduva Marijampole | 29 | 13 | 11 | 5 | 10 | 50 |
| 3 | FK Zalgiris Vilnius | 29 | 14 | 5 | 10 | 11 | 47 |
| 4 | TransINVEST Vilnius | 28 | 13 | 6 | 9 | 8 | 45 |
| 5 | Banga | 28 | 11 | 8 | 9 | 4 | 41 |
| 6 | Džiugas Telšiai | 28 | 10 | 8 | 10 | -4 | 38 |
| 7 | Panevėžys | 28 | 9 | 5 | 14 | -14 | 32 |
| 8 | Hegelmann Litauen | 29 | 4 | 14 | 11 | -17 | 26 |
| 9 | Šiauliai | 29 | 3 | 8 | 18 | -34 | 17 |
| 10 | FK Trakai | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is TransINVEST Vilnius win, at 45.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 57% and over 2.5 goals at 54%.
A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.