National Football Stadium · Analysis updated 20:08 UTC
Eagles vs Buru Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.68 expected goals for Eagles and 1.58 for Buru, a combined total of 4.25. That distribution gives Eagles the largest share of the 1X2 market at 61%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 79% for over 2.5 goals and 74% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 61% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Eagles win
61.0% probability
Expected goals
2.68 – 1.58
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Eagles home form
15 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Eagles to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 61%, against 61% / 18% / 21% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.68 goals for Eagles and 1.58 for Buru, a combined 4.25 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 79% and both teams to score at 74%, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
79%
Double chance 12
82%
Double chance X2
39%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–18.0%
- 3–17.2%
- 2–26.3%
- 1–16.0%
- 3–25.6%
Recent form
Eagles
- 2026-07-24T14:00:00.000Z · A vs North Leeward · 1-3 (L)
- 2025-07-29T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Police · 1-6 (L)
- 2025-07-27T20:00:00.000Z · A vs All Saints United · 1-3 (L)
- 2024-07-26T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Bays · 0-1 (L)
- 2023-11-30T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Valencia · 2-0 (W)
Buru
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Eagles win, at 61.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 74% and over 2.5 goals at 79%.
A 61% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.