Salt Lake Stadium · Analysis updated 09:24 UTC
East Bengal II vs ATK Mohun Bagan Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.35 expected goals for East Bengal II and 0.97 for ATK Mohun Bagan, a combined total of 3.32. That distribution gives East Bengal II the largest share of the 1X2 market at 68%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 64% for over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 68% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
East Bengal II win
68.2% probability
Expected goals
2.35 – 0.97
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
East Bengal II home form
6 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates East Bengal II to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 68%, against 68% / 18% / 14% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.35 goals for East Bengal II and 0.97 for ATK Mohun Bagan, a combined 3.32 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 64% and both teams to score at 56%, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 10%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
86%
Double chance 12
82%
Double chance X2
32%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–010.0%
- 2–19.7%
- 1–08.5%
- 1–18.2%
- 3–07.8%
Recent form
East Bengal II
- 2026-10-23T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Inter Kashi · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-10-18T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Churchill Brothers · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-10-13T13:45:00.000Z · H vs Al Shorta · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-10-08T12:45:00.000Z · A vs ATK Mohun Bagan · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-05T11:30:00.000Z · H vs NorthEast United · 7-2 (W)
ATK Mohun Bagan
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Indian Super League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NorthEast United | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 7 |
| 2 | Minerva Punjab | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7 |
| 3 | East Bengal II | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 6 |
| 4 | Bengaluru | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 |
| 5 | Kerala Blasters | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 4 |
| 6 | ATK Mohun Bagan | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 7 | Churchill Brothers | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -4 | 3 |
| 8 | Odisha | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 2 |
| 9 | Mumbai City | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 2 |
| 10 | Goa | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 11 | Chennaiyin | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 1 |
| 12 | Inter Kashi | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -6 | 1 |
| 13 | SC Delhi | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is East Bengal II win, at 68.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 56% and over 2.5 goals at 64%.
A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.