Jawaharlal Nehru Stadium · Analysis updated 05:15 UTC
East Bengal II vs NorthEast United Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.79 expected goals for East Bengal II and 1.50 for NorthEast United, a combined total of 4.29. That distribution gives East Bengal II the largest share of the 1X2 market at 65%, with the draw at 17%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 80% for over 2.5 goals and 73% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 65% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
East Bengal II win
64.5% probability
Expected goals
2.79 – 1.50
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
East Bengal II home form
6 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates East Bengal II to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 65%, against 65% / 17% / 19% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.79 goals for East Bengal II and 1.50 for NorthEast United, a combined 4.29 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 80% and both teams to score at 73%, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
81%
Double chance 12
83%
Double chance X2
36%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–18.0%
- 3–17.4%
- 2–26.0%
- 1–15.7%
- 3–25.6%
Recent form
East Bengal II
- 2026-10-23T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Inter Kashi · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-10-18T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Churchill Brothers · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-10-13T13:45:00.000Z · H vs Al Shorta · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-10-08T12:45:00.000Z · A vs ATK Mohun Bagan · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-05T11:30:00.000Z · H vs NorthEast United · 7-2 (W)
NorthEast United
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
IFA Shield table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ATK Mohun Bagan | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 8 |
| 2 | Minerva Punjab | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 7 |
| 3 | East Bengal II | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 6 |
| 4 | NorthEast United | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 4 |
| 5 | Calcutta Customs | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -9 | 0 |
| 6 | Sreenidi Deccan | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -9 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is East Bengal II win, at 64.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 73% and over 2.5 goals at 80%.
A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.