Bay City Park · Analysis updated 02:14 UTC
East Coast Bays vs Bay Olympic Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.66 expected goals for East Coast Bays and 0.92 for Bay Olympic, a combined total of 2.58. That distribution gives East Coast Bays the largest share of the 1X2 market at 55%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 48% for over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 55% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
East Coast Bays win
54.7% probability
Expected goals
1.66 – 0.92
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
East Coast Bays home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Bay Olympic away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates East Coast Bays to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 55%, against 55% / 24% / 21% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.66 goals for East Coast Bays and 0.92 for Bay Olympic, a combined 2.58 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
79%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
45%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–012.6%
- 1–111.6%
- 2–010.4%
- 2–19.6%
- 0–07.6%
Recent form
East Coast Bays
- 2025-08-30T03:00:00.000Z · A vs Auckland City · 0-2 (L)
- 2025-08-23T06:00:00.000Z · H vs West Coast Rangers · 1-0 (W)
- 2025-08-16T03:00:00.000Z · A vs Manurewa · 6-0 (W)
- 2025-08-09T03:00:00.000Z · H vs Tauranga City United · 2-1 (W)
- 2025-08-02T03:00:00.000Z · H vs Auckland United · 0-1 (L)
Bay Olympic
- 2025-08-30T03:00:00.000Z · H vs Auckland II · 2-2 (D)
- 2025-08-23T06:00:00.000Z · A vs Fencibles United · 0-1 (L)
- 2025-08-16T03:00:00.000Z · A vs Tauranga City United · 0-0 (D)
- 2025-08-09T03:00:00.000Z · H vs Birkenhead United · 1-5 (L)
- 2025-08-02T05:00:00.000Z · A vs Western Springs · 1-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
National League - Northern table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Western Springs | 22 | 13 | 3 | 6 | 14 | 42 |
| 2 | Birkenhead United | 22 | 12 | 5 | 5 | 22 | 41 |
| 3 | Auckland United | 22 | 12 | 4 | 6 | 15 | 40 |
| 4 | Auckland City | 22 | 12 | 4 | 6 | 11 | 40 |
| 5 | Eastern Suburbs | 22 | 12 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 40 |
| 6 | East Coast Bays | 22 | 10 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 36 |
| 7 | Tauranga City United | 22 | 9 | 3 | 10 | 4 | 30 |
| 8 | Bay Olympic | 22 | 6 | 6 | 10 | -10 | 24 |
| 9 | Auckland II | 22 | 6 | 5 | 11 | -4 | 23 |
| 10 | Fencibles United | 22 | 5 | 6 | 11 | -12 | 21 |
| 11 | Manurewa | 22 | 4 | 4 | 14 | -33 | 16 |
| 12 | West Coast Rangers | 22 | 3 | 6 | 13 | -20 | 15 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is East Coast Bays win, at 54.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 49% and over 2.5 goals at 48%.
A 55% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.