National Stadium · Analysis updated 12:54 UTC
East End Lions vs AFAD Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.00 expected goals for East End Lions and 1.00 for AFAD, a combined total of 2.00. That distribution gives East End Lions the largest share of the 1X2 market at 35%, with the draw at 31%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 32% for over 2.5 goals and 40% for both teams to score, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 35% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
65.5% probability
Expected goals
1.00 – 1.00
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
East End Lions home form
1 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
AFAD away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates East End Lions to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 35%, against 35% / 31% / 35% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.00 goals for East End Lions and 1.00 for AFAD, a combined 2.00 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
66%
Double chance 12
69%
Double chance X2
66%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–013.5%
- 0–113.5%
- 1–013.5%
- 1–113.5%
- 0–26.8%
Recent form
East End Lions
- 2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · H vs AFAD · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-06T16:00:00.000Z · A vs AFAD · 1-1 (D)
- 2025-09-28T14:00:00.000Z · A vs US Monastirienne · 1-3 (L)
- 2025-09-21T15:00:00.000Z · H vs US Monastirienne · 0-4 (L)
- 2024-08-25T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Jaraaf · 0-3 (L)
AFAD
- 2026-10-17T16:00:00.000Z · H vs CS Sfaxien · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-10T18:00:00.000Z · A vs ASEC Mimosas · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-04T15:30:00.000Z · H vs SOA · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-27T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Bouaké · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · A vs East End Lions · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 65.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 40% and over 2.5 goals at 32%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.