K-Park Training Academy · Analysis updated 13:28 UTC
East Kilbride vs East Fife Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.93 expected goals for East Kilbride and 0.83 for East Fife, a combined total of 2.75. That distribution gives East Kilbride the largest share of the 1X2 market at 63%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 52% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 63% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
East Kilbride win
63.2% probability
Expected goals
1.93 – 0.83
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
East Kilbride home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
East Fife away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates East Kilbride to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 63%, against 63% / 21% / 15% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.93 goals for East Kilbride and 0.83 for East Fife, a combined 2.75 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
85%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
37%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–012.3%
- 2–011.8%
- 1–110.2%
- 2–19.8%
- 3–07.6%
Recent form
East Kilbride
- 2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Montrose · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-13T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Kelty Hearts · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Airdrie United · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs East Fife · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Stranraer · 3-4 (L)
East Fife
- 2026-10-24T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Hamilton Academical · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Alloa Athletic · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-13T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Cumbernauld Colts · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Cove Rangers · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs East Kilbride · 0-3 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · East Kilbride 3-0 East Fife (League One)
League One table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ross County | 11 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 36 | 31 |
| 2 | Hamilton Academical | 11 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 21 | 31 |
| 3 | Montrose | 12 | 6 | 1 | 5 | -3 | 19 |
| 4 | East Kilbride | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 18 |
| 5 | Airdrie United | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | -9 | 13 |
| 6 | Queen of the South | 12 | 4 | 1 | 7 | -21 | 13 |
| 7 | Alloa Athletic | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | -2 | 12 |
| 8 | Peterhead | 12 | 3 | 1 | 8 | -11 | 10 |
| 9 | East Fife | 12 | 1 | 6 | 5 | -7 | 9 |
| 10 | Cove Rangers | 11 | 1 | 3 | 7 | -9 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is East Kilbride win, at 63.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 48% and over 2.5 goals at 52%.
A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.