· Analysis updated 15:04 UTC
East Riffa vs Sitra Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.81 expected goals for East Riffa and 1.09 for Sitra, a combined total of 1.90. That distribution gives Sitra the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 31%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 30% for over 2.5 goals and 37% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
73.2% probability
Expected goals
0.81 – 1.09
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
East Riffa home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Sitra to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 42%, against 27% / 31% / 42% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.81 goals for East Riffa and 1.09 for Sitra, a combined 1.90 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 30% and both teams to score at 37%, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 16%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
58%
Double chance 12
69%
Double chance X2
73%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–116.3%
- 0–015.0%
- 1–113.2%
- 1–012.1%
- 0–28.9%
Recent form
East Riffa
- 2026-09-11T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Al Najma · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-02T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Sitra · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-28T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Al-Hidd · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-01-12T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Manama · 1-1 (D)
- 2025-05-26T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Al Shabab · 0-2 (L)
Sitra
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Premier League table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 73.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 37% and over 2.5 goals at 30%.
A 73% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.