Tseung Kwan O Sports Ground · Analysis updated 06:20 UTC
Eastern District vs Hong Kong FC Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.25 expected goals for Eastern District and 1.03 for Hong Kong FC, a combined total of 3.28. That distribution gives Eastern District the largest share of the 1X2 market at 65%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 64% for over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 65% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Eastern District win
65.0% probability
Expected goals
2.25 – 1.03
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Hong Kong FC away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 2 of the last 5 meetings.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Eastern District to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 65%, against 65% / 19% / 16% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.25 goals for Eastern District and 1.03 for Hong Kong FC, a combined 3.28 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
84%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
35%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.8%
- 2–09.6%
- 1–18.7%
- 1–08.5%
- 3–17.4%
Recent form
Eastern District
- 2026-10-11T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Southern District · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-04T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Kowloon City · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Southern District · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-11T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Warriors · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-06T10:30:00.000Z · A vs Kitchee · 1-4 (L)
Hong Kong FC
- 2026-10-01T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Shatin · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-19T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Kowloon City · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-12T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Wofoo Tai Po · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-06T08:30:00.000Z · H vs Warriors · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-08-22T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Southern District · 2-3 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-04-25T10:00:00.000Z · Eastern District 1-2 Hong Kong FC (Premier League)
- 2026-01-18T08:30:00.000Z · Eastern District 2-0 Hong Kong FC (Premier League)
- 2025-09-20T10:30:00.000Z · Eastern District 3-0 Hong Kong FC (Premier League)
- 2021-05-02T05:30:00.000Z · Eastern District 0-1 Hong Kong FC (HKFA 1st Division)
- 2019-09-21T12:30:00.000Z · Eastern District 3-1 Hong Kong FC (HKFA 1st Division)
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kitchee | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | Warriors | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | North District | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | Wofoo Tai Po | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5 | Eastern | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 6 | Kowloon City | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 7 | Eastern District | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 8 | Southern District | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 9 | BC Rangers | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 10 | Hong Kong FC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 11 | Shatin | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Eastern District win, at 65.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 57% and over 2.5 goals at 64%.
A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.