Heath Park · Analysis updated 07:29 UTC
Eastern Suburbs vs Magic United Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.05 expected goals for Eastern Suburbs and 1.90 for Magic United, a combined total of 3.95. That distribution gives Eastern Suburbs the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 75% for over 2.5 goals and 74% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
63.3% probability
Expected goals
2.05 – 1.90
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Eastern Suburbs home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Magic United away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Eastern Suburbs to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 43%, against 43% / 21% / 37% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.05 goals for Eastern Suburbs and 1.90 for Magic United, a combined 3.95 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
63%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
58%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–17.7%
- 1–17.5%
- 2–27.3%
- 1–27.1%
- 3–15.3%
Recent form
Eastern Suburbs
- 2026-08-14T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Gold Coast United · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-08T08:00:00.000Z · H vs WDSC Wolves · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-07-31T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Rochedale Rovers · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-07-18T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Magic United · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-07-12T07:00:00.000Z · A vs Lions · 0-1 (L)
Magic United
- 2026-08-14T09:30:00.000Z · A vs WDSC Wolves · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-08-08T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Rochedale Rovers · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-02T04:30:00.000Z · H vs Olympic · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-07-18T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Eastern Suburbs · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-07-11T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Moreton City Excelsior · 3-4 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-07-18T08:00:00.000Z · Eastern Suburbs 1-4 Magic United (Queensland NPL)
- 2026-04-18T05:00:00.000Z · Eastern Suburbs 2-0 Magic United (Queensland NPL)
Queensland NPL table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lions | 22 | 17 | 2 | 3 | 35 | 53 |
| 2 | Peninsula Power | 22 | 13 | 6 | 3 | 22 | 45 |
| 3 | Moreton City Excelsior | 22 | 12 | 3 | 7 | 16 | 39 |
| 4 | Gold Coast Knights | 22 | 11 | 5 | 6 | 14 | 38 |
| 5 | Brisbane City | 22 | 9 | 7 | 6 | -1 | 34 |
| 6 | WDSC Wolves | 22 | 9 | 6 | 7 | -4 | 33 |
| 7 | Eastern Suburbs | 22 | 9 | 2 | 11 | -1 | 29 |
| 8 | Olympic | 22 | 8 | 2 | 12 | -4 | 26 |
| 9 | Magic United | 22 | 7 | 1 | 14 | -26 | 22 |
| 10 | Rochedale Rovers | 22 | 6 | 3 | 13 | -18 | 21 |
| 11 | Gold Coast United | 22 | 6 | 2 | 14 | -13 | 20 |
| 12 | Brisbane Roar II | 22 | 5 | 1 | 16 | -20 | 16 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 63.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 74% and over 2.5 goals at 75%.
A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.