Stonebridge Road Stadium · Analysis updated 19:35 UTC
Ebbsfleet United vs Ashford Town (Middlesex) Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.95 expected goals for Ebbsfleet United and 1.22 for Ashford Town (Middlesex), a combined total of 3.17. That distribution gives Ebbsfleet United the largest share of the 1X2 market at 54%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 61% for over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 54% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Ebbsfleet United win
54.4% probability
Expected goals
1.95 – 1.22
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Ebbsfleet United home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Ashford Town (Middlesex) away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Ebbsfleet United to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 54%, against 54% / 22% / 24% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.95 goals for Ebbsfleet United and 1.22 for Ashford Town (Middlesex), a combined 3.17 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
76%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
46%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.0%
- 2–19.7%
- 1–08.2%
- 2–08.0%
- 3–16.3%
Recent form
Ebbsfleet United
- 2026-10-20T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Horsham · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Weston-super-Mare · 6-1 (W)
- 2026-10-13T18:45:00.000Z · H vs AFC Totton · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Hampton & Richmond · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-06T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Folkestone Invicta · 1-0 (W)
Ashford Town (Middlesex)
- 2026-07-25T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Leatherhead · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-07-21T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Tadley Calleva · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-07-18T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Marlow · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-07-14T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Alton Town · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-07-11T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Chertsey Town · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Ebbsfleet United win, at 54.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 60% and over 2.5 goals at 61%.
A 54% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.