Stonebridge Road Stadium · Analysis updated 17:36 UTC
Ebbsfleet United vs Maidenhead Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.08 expected goals for Ebbsfleet United and 1.05 for Maidenhead, a combined total of 3.13. That distribution gives Ebbsfleet United the largest share of the 1X2 market at 61%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 60% for over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 61% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Ebbsfleet United win
60.9% probability
Expected goals
2.08 – 1.05
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Ebbsfleet United home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Maidenhead away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
82%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
39%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.9%
- 1–19.6%
- 2–09.5%
- 1–09.1%
- 3–16.9%
Recent form
Ebbsfleet United
- 2026-10-20T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Horsham · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Weston-super-Mare · 6-1 (W)
- 2026-10-13T18:45:00.000Z · H vs AFC Totton · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Hampton & Richmond · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-06T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Folkestone Invicta · 1-0 (W)
Maidenhead
- 2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Maidstone Utd · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Tonbridge Angels · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Chesham United · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Ebbsfleet United · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Billericay Town · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · Ebbsfleet United 3-1 Maidenhead (FA Cup)
- 2026-03-17T19:45:00.000Z · Ebbsfleet United 3-2 Maidenhead (National League - South)
- 2026-01-31T15:00:00.000Z · Ebbsfleet United 3-0 Maidenhead (National League - South)
- 2025-04-26T14:00:00.000Z · Ebbsfleet United 0-2 Maidenhead (National League)
- 2024-09-24T18:45:00.000Z · Ebbsfleet United 1-2 Maidenhead (National League)
- 2024-01-23T19:45:00.000Z · Ebbsfleet United 1-0 Maidenhead (National League)
- 2023-11-21T19:45:00.000Z · Ebbsfleet United 1-1 Maidenhead (National League)
- 2020-02-25T19:45:00.000Z · Ebbsfleet United 3-1 Maidenhead (National League)
- 2019-10-12T14:00:00.000Z · Ebbsfleet United 1-2 Maidenhead (National League)
- 2019-03-12T19:45:00.000Z · Ebbsfleet United 3-0 Maidenhead (National League)
National League - South table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Maidstone Utd | 13 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 26 |
| 2 | Ebbsfleet United | 11 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 20 | 25 |
| 3 | Truro City | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 10 | 24 |
| 4 | Dagenham & Redbridge | 13 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 23 |
| 5 | Salisbury | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 12 | 22 |
| 6 | Billericay Town | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 11 | 21 |
| 7 | Tonbridge Angels | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 10 | 21 |
| 8 | Dorking Wanderers | 12 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 8 | 20 |
| 9 | Farnham Town | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 20 |
| 10 | Folkestone Invicta | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 19 |
| 11 | Dover | 12 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 19 |
| 12 | Weston-super-Mare | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 18 |
| 13 | Horsham | 13 | 4 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 18 |
| 14 | Torquay | 12 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 17 |
| 15 | Chelmsford City | 11 | 2 | 9 | 0 | 6 | 15 |
| 16 | Hemel Hempstead Town | 13 | 3 | 5 | 5 | -3 | 14 |
| 17 | Farnborough | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | -9 | 14 |
| 18 | Maidenhead | 13 | 3 | 4 | 6 | -5 | 13 |
| 19 | AFC Totton | 13 | 4 | 1 | 8 | -12 | 13 |
| 20 | Chesham United | 12 | 3 | 1 | 8 | -10 | 10 |
| 21 | Braintree | 12 | 3 | 1 | 8 | -15 | 10 |
| 22 | Hampton & Richmond | 12 | 2 | 2 | 8 | -16 | 8 |
| 23 | Walton & Hersham | 12 | 2 | 2 | 8 | -18 | 8 |
| 24 | Slough Town | 13 | 1 | 1 | 11 | -21 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Ebbsfleet United win, at 60.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 57% and over 2.5 goals at 60%.
A 61% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.